Wednesday, September 17, 2008

(but America digs Obama again)

Excellent news from the new New York Times/CBS poll:

Poll: Obama Retakes Lead Over McCain

In a sign that John McCain's convention bounce has dissipated, Barack Obama has taken a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over his Republican rival among registered voters in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

McCain had a two percentage point lead among registered voters in a CBS News poll released on September 8th, just after the Republican National Convention....

Add that to the fact that Obama's regained the lead (by 2 points) in the latest Gallup tracking poll and things are looking good now.

And remember that 20-point swing to McCain among white women in an ABC poll taken just after the Republican convention? Well, right back at ya:

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.


Palin's favorable rating stands at 40 percent, down 4 points from last week.... Her favorable rating among women has fallen 11 points in the past week.

Now, here's the thing: According to the results for the VP part of the poll (PDF), Palin's down 11% among women, as stated. But she's down only 4% overall. If I'm doing the math correctly, that means her numbers are up among men.

And the poll's main results (PDF) note that while Obama has turned a 2-point deficit into a 5-point lead overall, and has had a +21-point turnaround among white women, he's actually doing worse among white men -- 40%-52% last week, 36%-54% this week.

Is that because of McCain, Palin, or both?

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