Monday, September 15, 2008


A 6-point Obama gain in Virginia in the past week, according to SurveyUSA? He's now up by 4?

And the same polling firm says he's actuslly doing better in Virginia than he is in Minnesota, where his lead is only 2?

That's bizarre.

Demographic information from Virginia:

One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

And in Minnesota:

In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead.

And in each state, SurveyUSA says Palin is having no effect on the female vote.

Anyone got a theory about all this?

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