Wednesday, September 26, 2007


Every time I hear that people are finally starting to have their doubts about Rudy Giuliani and his campaign is finally starting to tank, the next thing that happens is something like this:

...Mitt Romney's lead in the battle for the GOP presidential nomination in the all important Granite State has evaporated, according to the results of a CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

The survey, released Wednesday, shows the former Massachusetts Governor drawing support from 25 percent of Republican primary voters to 24 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

That statistically-insignificant, 1 percentage point margin is a major change from CNN/WMUR's last New Hampshire poll, taken in July, when Romney held a comfortable 14 point lead over Giuliani....

If that holds, that's it. Romney's entire strategy is to win Iowa and New Hampshire and then be declared inevitable. If he can't win a neighboring state (and if Thompson continues to campaign as poorly as he's been doing), then Giuliani's got it.

Oh, and in a general-election matchup, Giuliani is still neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton in the supposedly solid-blue state of New Jersey, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. (It's 45%-44% Giuliani, down slightly from 47%-44% in July.)

I'm worried. Giuliani can beat Hillary in every red state and be competitive in some blue states. Which ones besides Jersey? I'm not sure any state is off limits when I read that a Republican is within 10 points of a Democrat for an open House seat in Massachusetts -- and the Democrat is Paul Tsongas's widow. (Right-wingers are claiming that the race is within 5 points, according to an internal Democratic poll.)

Damn Northeasterners -- we don't agree with the Republicans, but we're willing to vote for far too many of them.

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