Wednesday, May 06, 2015

OMIGOD OMIGOD SHE'S DOOMED

Hot Air's Noah Rothman looks at a New Hampshire poll's general-election matchups and thinks Hillary Clinton is in trouble:
... the results of the latest Dartmouth University survey should be a source of concern for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

... That poll found that ... Clinton continues to enjoy the support of more voters when tested against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rand Paul (R-KY) and Govs. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee. But that same survey also found Clinton struggling when voters were forced to choose between her and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and it discovered that the former secretary of state comes up short in a hypothetical matchup against both Govs. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush.

" ... Bush received 36.9 percent support while Clinton received 34.1 percent support (29.0 percent unsure),” the poll’s release read.

“The Rubio-Clinton trial heat resulted in a virtual tie -- 34.4 percent for Rubio and 34.5 percent for Clinton, with 31.1 percent unsure,” it continued. “Finally, Walker leads Clinton by a four-point margin, 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent, with 26.5 percent unsure.”
That would be the same Dartmouth survey that said this in April 2011 -- just about four years ago exactly:
President Obama is getting some ominous news out of New Hampshire Friday in a new poll that suggests he will lose the key presidential state by a sizable margin if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee.

According to the new survey conducted by Dartmouth College, Romney beats the president in a head-to-head matchup by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Obama's poor showing against Romney is also the product of his weak approval rating in the Granite State, where only 36 percent of voters there give him positive marks....
Obama was losing to Romney by 8! He had lousy approval ratings! He was in serious trouble!

Um, Obama ultimately won New Hamoshire 52%-46% -- a 6-point victory rather than an 8-point loss.

My theory? Four years ago at this time, there were a lot of Republicans stomping around New Hampshire and talking themselves up (and talking Democrtic policies don); for obvious reasons, there wasn't anyone on the ground doing Democratic pushback. Y'know, just like now.

So, Noah, I don't think this poll is hugely worrisome. Get back to me in a year.

2 comments:

peabody nobis said...

Noah's a partisan hack, going back to his Mediaite days. He's no different than any random right-wing troll in a comments section, spouting off inflammatory accusations with little, to no, evidence to support them.

Pops said...

Noah Rothman is one of the most ridiculous fools to ever get fired from every place he has vented his BS.