THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ABOUT HOW TO BEAT TRUMP IN THE PRIMARIES IS STILL WRONG

Just yesterday, in a New York Times opinion piece, David Firestone wrote this about Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign:

The most obvious fault in his strategy is that you can’t beat Donald Trump if you don’t even criticize him, and Mr. DeSantis has said little about the multiple indictments piling up against the former president or about his character.... [H]e can’t become an alt-Trump without drawing a sharp contrast and holding Mr. Trump to account for at least a few of his many flaws.

Nearly every pundit believes this, of course, so let's take a look at what happened in Iowa when another candidate followed this strategy:

Former GOP Rep. and presidential candidate Will Hurd navigated boos and jeers in Iowa on Friday after declaring that former President Donald Trump was running for president “to stay out of prison.” ...

“One of the things we need in our elected leaders: For them to tell the truth, even if it’s unpopular,” Hurd said.

“Donald Trump is not running for president to Make America Great Again. Donald Trump is not running for president to represent the people that voted for him in 2016 and 2020. Donald Trump is running to stay out of prison.”

The remark sparked boos and jeers from the Iowa crowd as the candidate neared the end of his speech.

Why do pundits still believe this can work? Do they think GOP voters support Trump because they've somehow managed never to hear any anti-Trump arguments? Do they think this is a thoroughly unfamiliar message that, when heard, will somehow make the scales fall from the base's eyes?

NPR/Marist asks Republicans whether they support Trump or another candidate and 58% say they support Trump. Chris Christie has built his entire presidential campaign around the message that he's the one guy willing to punch Trump in the nose and 55% of Republican voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, according to Monmouth. Meanwhile, the only two Trump challengers who are rising in the polls are Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy, who never criticize Trump.

Republican voters like Trump. It's theoretically possible that a few more indictments and a few criminal convictions will lessen his appeal to the base -- although that seems unlikely. It's also possible that he'll decide to drop out of the race to deal full-time with his legal problems, or agree not to run as part of a legal grand bargain. Or he could die or get very sick.

But there's nothing any GOP rival can do to lessen his appeal. They have to pray for one of the above-mentioned lucky breaks. And if that happens, the party will choose a pro-Trump alternative.