CHRISTIE'S ANTI-TRUMP CAMPAIGN MIGHT ACTUALLY BE HELPING TRUMP

Of course Maureen Dowd thinks Chris Christie could take down Donald Trump.

We have both known the blackguard for decades. And let’s be honest. We want Christie on that wall. After years of watching Republicans cower before Trump, it’s bracing to see the disgraced former president finally meet his mean match.

What evidence is there that Trump has met his match? I understand how this is meant to work in theory. Christie tells Dowd:

“I don’t think he’s ever gone up against somebody who knows how to do what he does. He’s never run against somebody from New Jersey who understands what the New York thing is and what he’s all about. For people like me, who’ve grown up here and lived my whole life in this atmosphere, he’s just one of a lot of people I know who have that personality. He knows I know what his game is.”

Christie is right: Combative people from this area have a certain style. But so what? Please identify any defeat in Trump's lifetime that came about because someone out-argued or out-trash-talked him, in that particular New York/New Jersey way or otherwise. It's never happened. Most of his failures in business were self-inflicted. His most recent loss in court was to E. Jean Carroll, who grew up in Indiana and who beat him in a court of law, not in a face-to-face debate. There was no flamboyant antagonist when Trump was order to pay millions to people who'd been defrauded by Trump University. And Jack Smith, his current nemesis, isn't even speaking to the public.

Electorally, who's the only guy to beat Trump? Joe Biden. Biden just kept his head down and ground out a win in 2020, with none of the verbal brawling Christie promises.

Christie is contemptuous of previous Trump opponents. Dowd writes:

I warned that Trump is an asymmetrical fighter, so it’s hard to know how to go at him. Clinton tried to rise above him, and Marco Rubio imitated his crude style.

“You just brought up two of the most unskilled politicians I’ve ever met,” Christie said....

Really? Rubio has won three statewide elections, which is one more than Christie has ever won (and Rubio probably isn't done winning, which is more than you can say for Christie). Rubio won 3 contests and 173 delegates in the 2016 Republican primaries, which exceeds Christie's total by ... um, 3 contests and 173 delegates. Hillary Clinton, of course, won the popular vote in a presidential election, nine months after the high-water mark of Christie's campaign, a fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary.

What's the theory of Christie's 2024 race? There are two theories. The really naive one says that Christie can talk his party out of Trumpism, for which he'll be rewarded with the nomination. The somewhat less naive one says that of course he can't win the nomination, but he can do so much damage to Trump that Trump won't be able to win.

Here's what actually seems to be happening: Christie is moving up in the polls somewhat, particularly in New Hampshire. In a March poll of New Hampshire from St. Anselm College, Christie was at 1%; a poll this month from St. Anselm has him at 6%. But Christie isn't hurting Trump at all -- in fact, Trump's numbers went up from the March poll (42%) to the June poll (47%).

It's the same story with the National Research/American Greatness poll. Christie wasn't included in the May survey and was at 7% in the June survey. But again, Trump numbers went up, from 39% to 44%.

So Christie is talking, people (or at least people in New Hampshire) are listening -- and Trump is even more popular.

You can probably guess who's being harmed: Ron DeSantis. He was at 29% in the earlier St. Anselm poll and 19% in the later one; in the American Greatness poll, he dropped from 18% to 12%.

So Christie denounces Trump and takes votes away from the only candidate with even a slim hope of catching Trump. Genius plan.