Sunday, March 18, 2018


A story in The New York Times tells us that Scott Pruitt has big ambitions. How big? Big enough that the headline in the print edition is "Perched Atop E.P.A., Pruitt Plots '24 Run," and it's not a reference to a run for senator or governor (although one of those may come first):
In the past year, Mr. Pruitt has emerged as a hero to President Trump’s supporters for his hand in rolling back environmental rules at an agency long disliked by farmers, the fossil fuel industry and the far right....

Now, people close to Mr. Pruitt say he is using his perch as Mr. Trump’s deregulatory czar to position himself for further political prominence — starting with a run for office in his home state of Oklahoma....

Mr. Pruitt’s national profile has soared. He has appeared on the cover of the prominent conservative magazines National Review and The Weekly Standard. And Mr. Trump has privately praised some of Mr. Pruitt’s more controversial proposals, such as his idea to stage “red team, blue team” debates of climate-change science....

The endgame, say people who have spoken with Mr. Pruitt, is a possible run at the presidency in 2024 or later.
He's laying the groundwork:
Last year, Mr. Pruitt made two trips to Iowa, a key campaign state in presidential elections, to talk about his agenda....

Behind the scenes, Mr. Pruitt has spent time with major political donors. Last year he met with Foster Friess, a Republican fund-raiser, and with investors connected to Sheldon Adelson, the party megadonor, according to meeting records obtained by The New York Times. He also met with Steven Chancellor, an Indiana coal executive and Republican fund-raiser, according to documents obtained by the Sierra Club and published by Politico.
It's possible that he's just planning a run for Senate in 2020 (assuming that the octogenarian incumbent, James Inhofe, retires). Or he could get into the governor's race this year.

But I find it plausible that he'd like to be president.

And although it's left unstated in the story, I wonder if he's thinking about a presidential run earlier than 2024. I don't think he'd run against Trump in the primaries (unless there's a Democratic rout in 2018 and Trump tacks leftward after the Dems retake Congress, a scenario I don't think is plausible -- I think Trump would remain affiliated with Fox News and congressional Republicans, who would go into saboteur mode while demanding a restoration).

The 2020 scenario for Pruitt is a run if Trump doesn't seek a second term, because he's resigned, he's been removed from office, or he's chosen not to run again, for reasons of unpopularity or health. I have my doubts about those scenarios, too, but if one of them happens, I think it's unlikely that GOP primary voters will seek a return to normalcy -- the angriest among them (the largest bloc) will want someone who'll avenge the loss of Trump and own the liberals the way they believe Trump did. Pruitt's an ideal choice. As a signal to GOP voters that he's conservatively correct, he's done everything short of wringing a spotted owl's neck on live TV. (Someone who did that would have the nomination locked up by Super Tuesday.)

The Times article tells us that there's some skepticism about the pace of Pruitt's deregulatory efforts:
Some former E.P.A. chiefs noted that Mr. Pruitt’s unusual speed at attempting to dismantle regulations could mean that those efforts might not stand up to later legal challenges. “The policies he’s pushing play very well in his home state and with the base — but you can’t do them overnight,” said Christine Todd Whitman, who headed the E.P.A. in the George W. Bush administration and before that was the governor of New Jersey. “They’re getting rushed out. I don’t think the homework is being done. It makes for good sound bites, but they might not stand up legally.”
But that's perfect for Pruitt if he wants to run for president. If the changes are upheld in court, he wins. If not, he can say he's been thwarted by "activist liberal judges." Stab in the back! Molon labe!

A lot of people believe that if Trump goes down in disgrace it will shame Republican voters, who'll turn to more traditional Republicans in the future. But Pruitt is a traditional Republican now. He's what the party was becoming long before Trump. What GOP voters might say they don't miss is Trump's narcissism and lack of policy focus. They'll want a lean and hungry culture warrior who's more devoted to the Cause than to himself. That could easily be Pruitt.

I don't know if he could win a general election, but doubts about that didn't prevent GOP voters from picking Trump in 2016. So, yeah, this guy has a real shot at the nomination.

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