HAS THE GOP SOLVED ITS 2024 ABORTION PROBLEM?

It's widely believed that Republican have a serious abortion problem going into 2024. Their strong opposition to reproductive rights is highly unpopular with voters. But what if they're in the process of solving this problem, or at least papering it over? What would that do to Democratic turnout next year?

The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey tells us that Republicans need to find a position closer to where the public stands, and they're struggling to do that. See, for instance, Nikki Haley:

Republicans have had 10 months to hammer out a coherent post-Roe message on abortion. You would think they’d have nailed it by now.

Yet on Tuesday, Nikki Haley set out to declare her position on the issue—and proceeded to be about as clear as concrete.

She began with plausible precision. “I want to save as many lives and help as many moms as possible,” the former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations told reporters gathered at the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America headquarters, in Northern Virginia—a press event billed as a “major policy speech.” But her statements quickly got squishier. It’s good that some states have passed anti-abortion laws in the past year, she said. And as for the states that have reacted by enshrining abortion-rights protections? Well, she wishes “that weren’t the case.”

And then she seemed to channel Veep’s Selina Meyer. “Different people in different places are taking different paths,” Haley said, with a self-assurance that belied the indeterminacy of her words.

Haley didn't take a position on a national abortion ban except to say that even if Republicans completely control the federal government in 2024, they won't pass one, because they'll need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome an inevitable Democratic filibuster. But she didn't seem to take any other firm position, either -- this at a time when national anti-abortion groups are calling for at least a national 15-week ban on abortion.

Haley's avoidance of anti-abortion absolutism ticked off hard-liners. ("'Disappointing speech by @NikkiHaley today. Leads with compromise & defeatism, not vision & courage,' Lila Rose, who heads the group Live Action, tweeted.") But the ambiguity might be just what it takes to bamboozle infrequent voters who were galvanized by the Dobbs decision. After Dobbs, and after moves in many states to severely restrict abortion and punish providers and abortion seekers, the party seems to have shifted strategy. Most Republicans still proudly support draconian abortion laws -- but, all of a sudden, state bans seem to be running into roadblocks:

In South Carolina, six state Senate Republicans — three of them women — voted against a near-total ban on abortion, handing the effort its third defeat. The bill languishes despite Republicans’ almost 2-to-1 majority in the chamber....

In Nebraska, a bill to restrict the abortion window from 20 weeks to about six weeks failed when an 80-year-old male lawmaker, state Sen. Merv Riepe (R), who had previously supported the change, abstained from the vote. This deprived it of a crucial 33rd vote to overcome a filibuster in the 49-member chamber.

Someone who supported this restriction suddenly turned against it? And he's 80 years old, which means he's probably ready to retire soon, so he can afford to take one for the party? I assume that national Republicans want these bills to fail now. They couldn't stop Ron DeSantis and the Florida legislature from passing a six-week abortion ban, but they're happy when someone from their party blocks a ban because they think an apparent abortion pullback by state Republicans will diminish Democratic turnout next year.

Also see Eleanor Clift's story about the Supreme Court at the Daily Beast:

Kudos to Chief Justice John Roberts for corralling the three Trump-nominated pro-life justices to leave the abortion pill alone for now, saving the GOP from another Roe-like disaster....

When the 7-2 SCOTUS decision was handed down—protecting access and availability in states where it is legal to take the two-dose pill that ends a pregnancy up to 10 weeks—many Republican lawmakers quietly breathed a sigh of relief. Any other decision would have further inflamed an electorate still furious over losing Roe.

It is welcome news that Roberts managed to regain some control over the Court’s far-right faction, marginalizing Clarence Thomas and an angry Samuel Alito.... Roberts was able to cordon off the extremists....

Yup. I assume that the GOP donor class has gotten word to Roberts that all this abortion extremism is making a Republican trifecta in 2024 much less likely. The plutocracy need more tax cuts, dammit! (See, for instance, Florida megadonor Thomas Peterffy, who's cut DeSantis off because of the governor's stances on abortion and book banning.)

I'd like to believe that this won't fool any liberal or moderate voters. However, we're going to watch a few months of Republican debates in which DeSantis and probably a few other candidates defend hard-line abortion positions while Donald Trump, who opposes a national abortion ban and supports exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, comes off as the moderate, even though he's the guy who made the Dobbs decision possible.

Trump is likely to coast to the nomination, and he might run with Haley or someone whose abortion stance is similarly murky. If that happens, if there aren't any new state bans, and if the Supreme Court's final ruling keeps mifepristone on the market, what does that do to the pro-abortion-rights urgency we saw in 2022?

Maybe Republicans will just keep cracking down on abortion because they can't help themselves. But if they've earned their lesson, it might help them in 2024. Which doesn't mean they won't go right back to banning abortion in 2025 if they can.