Friday, July 01, 2022


At the Daily Beast, David Rothkopf writes:
Mark it on your calendars. This was the week the meteoric political career of Donald Trump did what meteors often do and collided with planet Earth, leaving a large, ugly mark on the landscape....

[Cassidy Hutchinson's January 6 Committee] testimony hit Washington and the U.S. political scene ... with the force of several atomic bombs.
AP's Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont write:
Stunning new revelations about former President Donald Trump’s fight to overturn the 2020 election have exposed growing political vulnerabilities just as he eyes another presidential bid.

... in Iowa ... several voters signaled Thursday that they were open to another presidential candidate even if Trump were to run again. At the same time, some conservative media outlets issued scathing rebukes of the former president. Aides for multiple GOP presidential prospects also indicated, publicly and privately, that they felt increasingly emboldened to challenge Trump in 2024 following the explosive new testimony.
But here are results from an Emerson College poll conducted the day of Hutchinson's testimony and the day after:
The January 6th hearings have had a split impact on voters’ intention to vote for Donald Trump in 2024 if he were to run: 35% say it makes them less likely, 32% say it makes them more likely, 28% say it makes no difference.

[Spencer] Kimball [of Emerson College Polling] noted, “Half of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Trump following the January 6th hearings, while a plurality, 38%, of Independents say they are less likely to support Trump if he runs in 2024...."
And so:
In the 2024 Republican Primary, 55% of voters would support former President Trump, 20% Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and 9% former Vice President Mike Pence. No other potential GOP candidate clears 5%.

In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump holds 44% support while Biden has 39% support; 12% would vote for someone else and 5% are undecided. “Since last month, Trump has held his share of support while Biden’s support has reduced four points.”
It's one poll, and yeah, that Yahoo/YouGov poll does show Trump's lead over DeSantis shrinking to single digits -- but I wonder how much that's a consequence of the question wording: "Who would you rather see as the Republican nominee for President in 2024?" The Emerson wording is: "In a hypothetical Republican primary for president, which candidate would you support at this time?" Maybe there are Republicans who hope DeSantis beats Trump but can't bring themselves to say that they wouldn't vote for Trump if he were on the ballot.

Whatever's going on, I assume that anything Trump-related -- more revelations, an indictment, several indictments -- will make some voters support more supportive of him even as other voters are alienated. It's always going to be a wash. The moement when the scales fall from Republicans' eyes will probably never come.

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