IF DEMOCRATS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS IN NOVEMBER, WILL THEY BE ALLOWED TO WIN?

I keep looking at polls and polling averages for key midterm races, especially the ones in which Democrats are defying predictions of a "red wave." Raphael Warnock: up by 1.3% over Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate race according to FiveThirtyEight, and up by 2.8% according to Real Clear Politics. Tim Ryan: up by 0.4% over J.D. Vance in the Ohio Senate race according to FiveThirtyEight. Likely Democratic nominee Mandela Barnes: up by 2% in a Wisconsin Senate matchup against incumbent Ron Johnson, according to a June poll from Marquette University. Josh Shapiro: up by 3 or 4 against Doug Mastriano according to recent polls of the Pennsylvania governor's race. Catherine Cortez Masto: up by 0.8% in the Nevada Senate race against Adam Laxalt, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Democrats can win some or all of these elections -- but if they do, the margins are likely to be tight. How will Republicans react?

Already this year, we see that Trump-addled county officials are refusing to certify election results:

It’s been more than nine weeks since the Pennsylvania primary. The election is still not certified.

The reason: Three counties — Berks, Fayette and Lancaster — are refusing to process absentee ballots that were received in a timely manner and are otherwise valid, except the voter did not write a date on the declaration printed on the ballot’s return envelope....

The standoff in Pennsylvania is the latest attempt by conservative-leaning counties to disrupt, delay or otherwise meddle with the process of statewide election certification....

The issue reached the courts last year, when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled in a dispute over a judicial election that ballots could not be discounted because voters had not dated the return envelope’s declaration. The Supreme Court upheld that decision in June.

We see election denialists inviting "constitutionalist" sheriffs to meddle in elections:

An influential network of conservative activists fixated on the idea that former President Donald J. Trump won the 2020 election is working to recruit county sheriffs to investigate elections based on the false notion that voter fraud is widespread.

The push, which two right-wing sheriffs’ groups have already endorsed, seeks to lend law enforcement credibility to the false claims and has alarmed voting rights advocates.

... at least three sheriffs involved in the effort — in Michigan, Kansas and Wisconsin — have already been carrying out their own investigations, clashing with election officials....

The three sheriffs gathered with a few hundred others at a forum this month in Las Vegas hosted by the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association.

Attendees included leaders of True the Vote, a group whose work spreading discredited theories of mass voter fraud inspired the conspiratorial film “2000 Mules”; Mike Lindell, the Trump ally and MyPillow chief executive; and other prominent figures in the 2020 election-denial movement....

The Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association ... is dedicated to the theory that sheriffs are beholden only to the Constitution and serve as the ultimate authority in a county — above local, state and federal officials and statutes....

And we see Republicans effectively accusing their political opponents of treason and encouraging violence in response:

In both swing states and safe seats, many Republicans say that liberals hate them personally and may turn rioters or a police state on people who disobey them....

That argument has been dramatized in ads that, for instance, show one armed candidate appearing to charge into the home of a political enemy, and another warning of “the mob” that threatens ordinary Americans. In many cases the candidates are brandishing firearms while threatening harm to liberals or other enemies....

In northwest Ohio, a campaign video for Republican congressional nominee J.R. Majewski shows him walking through a dilapidated factory, holding a semiautomatic weapon, warning that Democrats will “destroy our economy” with purposefully bad policies.

“Their agenda is bringing America to its knees, and I am willing to do whatever it takes,” says Majewski, who’s seeking a House seat in a district around Toledo that has been redrawn to make Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) beatable. “If I have to kick down doors, that’s just what patriots do.”

How will these people react if they lose a few elections by small margins? Obviously they're going to say any Democratic win that's not in the bluest of states and districts was the result of cheating. But it's possible that in quite a few winnable races for Republicans outside the deep-blue parts of America, Democrats will win narrowly after slow counts of big-city districts, or after absentee ballots are counted. I hope we're ready to fight for democracy this year and not just in 2024, because we might need to do that.