THAT'S NOT HOW IT WORKS

NBC News says that President Biden believes he won't suffer long-term political harm from the Afghanistan withdrawal.

President Joe Biden is standing firmly by his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan, despite chaotic scenes of the Taliban rapidly seizing control and the U.S. rushing to airlift diplomats out of the country.

Behind his confidence is a political bet that a war-weary U.S. public will stick with him and enable him to weather a firestorm of criticism....

He might be right. Polls continue to show that at least a plurality of Americans support withdrawal, and a new AP-NORC poll says that 62% of Americans believe the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting.

But this isn't a reason for Biden to feel confident:

"No one likes where this ended up, but it's hard to see Republicans winning elections on a campaign promise to go back to war in Afghanistan in 2022 or 2024," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic consultant who has worked for the party's House campaign arm and Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential bid.

Republicans won't campaign on that specific policy proposal because Republicans dont campaign on real policy proposals anymore. They campaign on fake policy proposals (protecting Americans from Antifa and Critical Race Theory) or oppositional-defiant policy proposals (defunding schools that have mask mandates). Real policy proposals, like a new war? No Republican candidate in 2024 will go there. But that doesn't mean they won't campaign against what's happening in Afghanistan now.

Chaos video from the Kabul airport will be in every GOP candidate's ads, but the candidates won't offer solutions. Their message will be Biden bad! It won't be Here's how we'd do better. They'll say, We're Republicans. That means we're real Americans and real men. We're not snowflakes and soy boys. So of course we'd do better. Something something steadfast. Something something resolve. Something something freedom.

I don't believe what's happening now will mean much to voters in three years. But if it does, expect a lot of vague talk about "defending our allies and standing up to our enemies." Expect the work "weak" to be used a lot in reference to Biden. Just don't expect serious policy proposals. Republicanism is all junk food and no real meals.