NO, REALLY, IS GAVIN NEWSOM IN TROUBLE?

If this SurveyUSA poll is acurate, California governor Gavin Newsom is about to be recalled, and the election won't be close:

51% of likely voters in California's upcoming gubernatorial recall election today would vote Yes to recall incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KGTV 10News and The San Diego Tribune.

40% would vote No, to keep Newsom in office.

Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin; Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin. Independents support recalling the Governor by 5:3.

We're told that the unvaccinated are pro-recall by 40 points (no surprise there), but that the recall is also supported, 48%-44%, by those who've been fully or partially vaccinated (harder to believe). Whites are pro-recall and Black and Asian voters are anti- (plausible), while Hispanic voters give the recall plurality support (less plausible?).

SurveyUSA's polls often seem sketchy, but the company gets an A rating from FiveThirtyEight. And whether you believe this poll or not, note that it's the fourth consecutive survey showing Newsom in trouble. It follows an Emerson poll giving "no on recall" a 2-point lead, a Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll in which "no" leads by 3, and an earlier Emerson poll in which "no" is up by 5.

Oh, and according to the SurveyUSA poll, the winner of the replacement election won't be right-wing talk-radio host Larry Elder, who's the favorite according to other surveys -- it'll be this guy:

Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTuber and real estate broker, takes 27% of the replacement vote today. Paffrath draws particular support from younger voters, Latinos, Democrats and liberals, and leads 12:1 among those who who are opposed to recalling Newsom. Paffrath leads 2:1 in greater Los Angeles and by 35 points in urban parts of the state.

Elder is at 23%.

Okay, that I don't believe -- although after Ronald Reagan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jesse Ventura, and Donald Trump, who knows? A YouTube huckster in charge of the fifth-largest economy in the world seems just about right for America in 2021. (By contrast, Emerson has Paffrath at 1%, well behind Elder at 23%, while Berkeley has Paffrath at 3% while Elder leads with 18%.) Paffrath says he's a Democrat. He makes a lot of promises:

* State of Emergency: Ending Homelessness within 60 days.
* State of Emergency: Housing Crisis: State to Take Over ALL Building and Safety/ Development for Expediting Building Permits IMMEDIATELY.
* State of Emergency: Creating Future Schools to immediately provide a free path to financial, vocational, high school, and college education in ONE platform.
* State of Emergency: Transportation: Immediately authorizing and requiring private proposals for tunnels, variable toll roads, mass transit, roads, and ending High-Speed-Rail Funding.

Meet Kevin Paffrath will also introduce legislation on day one to waive income taxes on the first $250,000 of income, permanently. He also intends to legalize gambling.... Meet Kevin Paffrath also intends to institute community policing and incentivize localized manufacturing and utilize a Carbon Tax to offset the removal of taxes on $250,000 of income for workers and investors.

(I'm quoting from a press release, in which Paffrath repeatedly refers to himself as "Meet Kevin Paffrath." He tried to get himself listed on the ballot that way, until a judge ruled, correctly, that "Meet Kevin" is part of his branding, not part of his name.)

I assume Elder, not Paffrath, is the true front-runner in the replacement election. And it still seems somewhat more likely that Newsom, a Democrat in a very Democratic state who can buy a lot of advertising in the clsing weeks of the campaign, will survive. But the Delta variant is bad in California, wildfires are bad, and crime and homeless aren't great. I remember Scott Brown in 2010 and Donald Trump in 2016. This thing could go either way.