Tuesday, December 22, 2020


Axios reports that Donald Trump is trying to scare Republicans who might acknowledge his defeat by demonstrating his mighty power to sustain or destroy their politcal careers:
President Trump lashed out at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday night for acknowledging Joe Biden won the election, sending a slide to Republican lawmakers taking credit for saving McConnell's career with a tweet and robocall....

"Sadly, Mitch forgot,” reads the top of the slide sent to Republican senators by Trump's personal assistant, written in red for emphasis. “He was the first one off the ship.”

... While both the message and its delivery targeted McConnell, they also carried a subtle warning to other Republicans who may follow suit as the president grasps at the last straws of his election-fraud claim.
Here's the slide:

Trump's claim is that the polls in the race between McConnell and Democrat Amy McGrath were tight until June 19, when Trump sent this tweet:

The Kentucky Senate polls collected by FiveThirtyEight do show a tight race early on. As the Trump slide notes, a poll released June 9 by RMG Research showed McGrath with a one-point lead.

But a poll released on June 18 -- a day before Trump's tweet -- showed McConnell with a 20-point lead. That survey, from the liberal firm Civiqs, was conducted June 13 to 15. The numbers were McConnell 53%, McGrath 33%.

So no, Trump's tweet didn't save McConnell. It's Kentucky. McConnell was always going to win.

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