Tuesday, June 02, 2020


The news continues to be disheartening, so here's a distraction: Remember when we were being told that even though President Trump was losing to Joe Biden in public opinion polls, he was way ahead in online betting markets? Dion Rabouin wrote this at Axios on May 11:
The world's most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.

The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.
That was true then -- but here's what the numbers at Real Clear Politics look like now (click to enlarge):

Trump is plummeting and Biden is rising. The former vice president has now taken a small lead.

As I told you at the time, Trump's lead was partly the result of bettors not being convinced that Biden will be the Democratic nominee -- and, in fact, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, and Michelle Obama are still seen as real contenders for the nomination according to Bovada.

Back then, PredictIt, which isn't listed in the RCP average, had Trump as a 49% favorite to win and Biden at 44%.

But now:

Has it become generally accepted wisdom that Trump is going to lose? Let's hope so. Then let's make it happen.

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