Tuesday, March 03, 2020


Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg have now suspended their campaigns and endorsed Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren is still in the race, but we all know she won't win -- she's been disappeared. And now Mike Bloomberg, despite all his money and despite the fact that the plutocracy likes his agenda, is also being disappeared by the media. So it's a two-candidate race, right?

It may not be that simple. Here's a USA Today/Suffolk poll that has Bloomberg, not Joe Biden, in second place behind Bernie Sanders in California. Here's a CBS/YouGov poll of California with Biden in second place behind Sanders, at 19%, but Elizabeth Warren only 1 point behind Biden. Here's a High Point poll of North Carolina that has Bloomberg second to Sanders, with Biden a distant third. Here's a Dallas Morning News poll of Texas that has Bloomberg in second place behind Sanders. Here's a Data for Progress poll of Texas with Bloomberg and Biden tied for second behind Sanders, and here's a Univision/University of Houston poll of Texas that also has a Biden-Bloomberg tie for second.

I'm cherry-picking these polls, of course, and they were all conducted before Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, and others began to rally around Biden. Nevertheless, I think it's too soon to say that we're in a two-candidate race.

Let's not assume that the votes of the dropout candidates will automatically go to Biden. According to Morning Consult:
* 21% of Buttigieg’s supporters said their second choice was Sen. Bernie Sanders.

* 19% picked former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and 17% chose former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Sanders could have such a good Super Tuesday that Biden will be seen as unable to catch up. Bloomberg could overachieve. Warren could overachieve.

Or the two-candidate narrative could be accurate:

But I'll wait until I see some results before I fully accept it.

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