Wednesday, June 05, 2019


There's terrible polling news for President Trump -- from Texas...
A new poll out Wednesday spells danger for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances in one of the unlikeliest of places: Texas.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows that Joe Biden would top Trump by four points — 48 percent to 44 percent — in a general election matchup there, an outcome the ruby red state hasn’t seen in four decades.

But even while Biden is the only Democratic presidential candidate to beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Texas, the poll signals trouble for the president there in that it found five other candidates within the poll’s margin of error, including home-state politicians Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro.
... and Michigan ...
While most Michigan voters don’t want Congress to impeach President Donald Trump, a majority said they would vote against him if the election were held today, according to a new statewide poll.

Both former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont showed 12-point margins over the first-term Republican incumbent in a Glengariff Group public opinion survey of 600 likely voters released to The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Local 4). Three other Democrats included in the poll [Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris] were preferred over Trump by less substantial margins.

... and, well, most of the battleground states:
... new polling of his state-by-state approval ratings suggests the president is unpopular in some of the most important battleground states for 2020, an ill omen if the trends hold until Election Day 2020.

... The new state polls from Morning Consult don’t bode well for him.

Here are the raw numbers for Trump in the states that are expected to be competitive in the 2020 election:

* New Hampshire: 39 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval
* Wisconsin: 42 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval
* Michigan: 42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval
* Iowa: 42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval
* Arizona: 45 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval
* Pennsylvania 45 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval
* Ohio: 46 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval
* North Carolina: 46 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval
* Florida: 48 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval
* Indiana: 49 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval
And yet there's this:
CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of Americans say they think Donald Trump is going to win a second term, according to a CNN Poll...

The new poll finds 54% say their best guess is that Trump will win the 2020 election, 41% feel he will lose....

The shift over that time comes mostly among those who disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency. In December, 81% in that group said they thought the President would lose, and now, that's fallen to 67%. At the same time, the share who approve of the President and think he will win has held mostly steady (88% now vs. 85% in December).
Am I wrong to blame the Democratic Party for this? Trump is vulnerable and widely disliked, but Democrats behave as if he's too tough to challenge in Washington and they don't want to in any case because they're terrified of his minority of supporters.

If Democrats had a little swagger, maybe the public would believe that contempt for Trump is a normal feeling that a majority of their fellow citizens share, which it is. I understand that Republican control of the Senate and the Supreme Court make it seem impossible to challenge Trump successfully. But Democrats could at least act as if trying to is simple Americanism, an effort to put a check on a bad man the country wishes would go away. Democrats could even do this without pushing for impeachment -- Republicans avoided impeachment calls during the Obama years, even though the GOP base surely thought Obama deserved it, while investigating the bejeezus out of the Obama administration as if nothing could be more natural and patriotic. It did the Republicans no harm in 2016.

America doesn't like Trump. Democrats should act as if they understand that.

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