Tuesday, April 09, 2019


The Trump administration is in chaos. Purges are taking place. The president proposes and then abandons extreme immigration policies, including some, such as family separation, that are extremely unpopular with the general public. This comes after he attempted to drag the congressional GOP back into the fight over health care, an issue Republicans don't want to touch, because they know they have no ideas that would be well received by the voters.

In the midst of all this, what is the right-wing pollster Rasmussen telling us about Trump's popularity?
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove.
According to Rasmussen, Trump's net approval rating is ... +8! That's an outlier -- to put it mildly:

Not only is Rasmussen's poll 14 points better than any recent Trump poll, but Real Clear Politics hasn't listed any non-Rasmussen poll with Trump in positive territory since March 2017 (and that was a Reuters/Ipsos poll with Trump up by a mere 3 points).

As a rule, the numbers for Trump in Rasmussen polls are good, but they're usually not this good. The new poll is Trump's best Rasmussen survey since a few days after the inauguration. Really? Why now?

I'm hoping it's because Rasmussen has made the decision to be even more upbeat about Trump and the Republicans than it usually is. If that's happening, and if that continues for the next year and a half, it could be good news ... for Democrats.

Remember the 2018 midterms? Do you remember Trump and other Republicans declaring that we should pay no attention to all those silly polls predicting big Democratic gains? Trump said, in fact, that there would be a "Red Wave" at the polls -- the predictions of Democratic success, he said, were fake news.

An internal GOP poll found that Republican voters believed this and were less motivated to turn out. The party mitigated that problem somewhat by demonizing Democrats over the treatment of Brett Kavanaugh (and Trump stirred up the deplorables with talk of migrant caravans) -- but Democrats definitely had an enthusiasm advantage.

I'd love it if there were a repeat of this in 2020. I hope Trump sees another "Red Wave" where none exists.

Rasmussen, just keep doing what you're doing.


UPDATE: Well, this was inevitable.

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