JUST A REMINDER OF WHO LED THE POLLING A YEAR BEFORE THE LAST IOWA CAUCUSES

Charlie Pierce has a point:

Kill this with death. https://t.co/fyESgY71di

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) December 16, 2018

It's too soon to take Iowa polling seriously. Do you know who was leading the GOP field in Iowa a year or so before the 2016 caucuses? According to one poll, it was Mike Huckabee:

Mike Huckabee has a slight lead with 17%, followed by Rand Paul at 14%, Jeb Bush at 13%, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 10%, Paul Ryan at 9%, Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal at 7%, and Marco Rubio at 3%.

That was a Public Policy Polling survey in February 2014; the current Democratic numbers are from the Des Moines Register and CNN. The PPP numbers really didn't come close to predicting the outcome of the caucuses, and not just because Donald Trump was excluded. Here were the results:



Very, very different from the polling a year early. So we should all remain calm.