Friday, January 19, 2018


Here's another bad poll for the president, this one from the L.A. Times:
As the anniversary of Trump’s inauguration approaches on Saturday, the president’s support has eroded, his opposition has gained energy and his party faces bleak prospects for the midterm elections in November, according to a new USC-Dornsife/Los Angeles Times nationwide poll.

Just under one-third of those polled, 32%, approved of Trump’s job performance, compared with 55% who disapproved and 12% who were neutral....

Moreover, opposition to him has intensified — 42% in the poll said they disapproved strongly of Trump’s job performance, up from 35% in April. A much smaller group, 15%, voiced strong approval, down slightly from April.
According to this poll, more people disapprove of Trump strongly (42%) than approve of him strongly or not-so-strongly (32%). Ouch.

You may remember the USC-Dornsife poll. It's the one that consistently had Trump in the lead in the summer and fall of 2016, even as other polls showed him trailing Hillary Clinton. Its final result: Trump by 3 (which wasn't accurate, since he lost the popular vote by 2). There's no pro-Trump lean in the poll now.

Please note the percentage of fervent Trump supporters in the poll: 15%. Now, compare that to what CBS's polling unit recently found: 18% of respondents in its recent poll are so-called Trump "believers" -- i.e., strong supporters. Another 23% are "conditionals" -- "those who support the president on the condition that he delivers what they want." In this poll, the percentage of strong Trump opponents -- "resisters" -- equals the percentage of believers and conditional supporters combined.

(The "curious" are those "opposing the president for now but willing to back him if things change." If the change that would turn them around includes a change in Trump's temperament, I don't think there's much likelihood of a conversion.)

I bring all this up because the mainstream media continues to be obsessed with Trump superfans. We're supposed to accept this because, after all, Trump didn't seem to be very popular in all those pre-election polls (the USC-Dornsife poll excepted), and yet he won (or at least won the Electoral College).

But the superfans who continue to be interviewed in all those diners for all those mainstream news organizations are less than 20% of the population (18% according to CBS, 15% according USC-Dornsife). We're sold the notion that they're the "real Americans" and Trump opponents are a small group of overeducated elitists. But it's the superfans who are small sliver of the populace. Fervent Trump opponents are widespread; fervent Trump fans aren't.

So would the media please cover those people accordingly?

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