Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Gallup runs a mock '08 GOP primary and Giuliani wins, even among conservatives:

...In its most recent poll, Gallup asked Democrats and Republicans for their preferences as to their respective parties' presidential nominees in 2008....

Ten percent of Republicans each mention Arizona Sen. John McCain (who unsuccessfully sought the 2000 nomination) and Giuliani, both of whom actively campaigned for Bush this year. Seven percent mention Secretary of State Colin Powell, one of the most popular figures in government but also one who declined to run for president in 1996 and 2000. Also receiving mention were Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (brother of the current president) [3%], national security adviser Condoleezza Rice [2%], Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist [2%], and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger [2%].

That's an open-ended poll -- the reponses are spontaneous. Then

When asked for their preferences among the leading Republican contenders -- Giuliani, McCain, and Jeb Bush -- 47% of Republicans choose Giuliani, 27% McCain and 17% Bush....

Among conservative Republicans, 47% prefer Giuliani, 23% McCain, and 22% Bush. Bush's support drops dramatically -- to 8% -- among Republicans who say they are moderate or liberal, while 51% of this group prefers Giuliani and 33% McCain.

So in '08 even the "moral values" voters might go for Rudy. That could change, of course, when they learn where he stands on abortion, gay rights, and gun control, but for now they like him. He could win red states -- and also Electoral Vote-rich blue states in the Northeast, starting with his own.

(Top finishers for the Democrats were Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and John Edwards.)

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