Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Pollster John Zogby is predicting a Kerry win.

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Zogby cites poor numbers for Bush now, poll respondents' preference for Kerry on the economy, which they cite as their top issue, Kerry's history as a "good closer," and this, which is new to me:

...Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

And CNN/USA Today/Gallup now has Kerry ahead of Bush, 50%-44%, among registered voters (though Bush is up by 1 among likely voters).

I'd love to think this will reduce the number of "floundering Kerry campaign" stories, but I'm betting it won't.


Then again, there's this Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll, which has Bush up by 5%. But that's still damn close six months out.

One point made in both the CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Investor's Business Daily/TIPP polls is that Bush has a lead in battleground states -- 51%-45% in the former, 49%-40% in the latter.

Bloody hell -- what if it happens again? What if, as Zogby predicts, undecideds tip to Kerry and he wins the popular vote -- but Bush's lead in battleground states holds and he wins the damn electoral college again while losing the popular vote?

OK, I'm calming down. It's really, really early.

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