Monday, February 01, 2016


The RealClear Politics Iowa average still has Marco Rubio trailing Donald Trump in Iowa by double digits, andtrailing Ted Cruz, by 7, but if a couple of recent Iowa polls are correct, Rubio may be surging. Here's Emerson College's poll:

And then there's an Opinion Savvy survey, with Trump at 20.1%, Cruz at 19.4%, and Rubio at 18.6%.

On the other hand, Bloomberg's Joshua Green said a couple of days ago that the Rubio surge isn't real:
Bloomberg News reporter Joshua Green analyzed the latest polling information during an interview on Breitbart News Sunday on the evening before the Iowa caucus.

He dismissed the buzz coming out of Washington D.C. suggesting that the Florida senator was surging right before the Republican primary caucus.

“There is no surge,” he said in an interview with Breitbart News Chairman Stephen K. Bannon on Sirius XM Patriot channel 125. “There is no evidence of anything like that.”

... He said that Rubio began in the single digits and managed to raise his polling numbers about five or six points before ending up with 15 percent.

“I wouldn’t call that a surge, it’s more of a gentle incline,” he said.
But it doesn't matter. A gentle incline is enough. If Rubio is in third place, if he's less than 10 points behind the winner, and if he wins a moderate number of delegates, he'll be on the front page of every mainstream media news site tomorrow -- yes, in a three-shot with #1 and #2 on many sites, but often in a two-shot with just the winner, and sometimes alone. (I think it'll be his face you see on Fox sites, given Rupert Murdoch's increasingly obvious preference for him. NBC News, too -- if you have the phrase "establishment lane" in a Chuck Todd drinking game over the next week, you might want to write a will before playing, because Todd's going to Todd's going to tell us endlessly that Rubio is the undisputed master of said lane.)

I'll post this again:

Little Marco may be about to take his first step today, after all that parental cheering.


AllieG said...

He'll have the same "Big Mo" coming out of Iowa G.H.W. Bush had in 1980!

John Taylor said...

The GOP created the Trump monster, they should own it.

Victor said...

I don't know which is emptier, the chair Clint Eastwood was talking to, or the suits that man-child Marco wears.

Nothing makes our MSM whores prouder, than when they help fill-out an empty suit.
See Bush, George W.

Unknown said...

Remember, for any media-preferred candidate, anything up to at least a 21 point deficit is "striking distance".

retiredeng said...

If they close their eyes really tight, hold their breath and wish, it might happen. They're desperate for Rubio to somehow pull this off.