Tuesday, April 29, 2014

IF ONLY OBAMA WERE AS POPULAR AS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

So ... that Washington Post/ABC poll that's so horrible for the Democrats going into this year's midterms? Let's look at some of its results:
Overall, which party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?

* Democrats by 6.

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling The economy? (half sample)


* Democrats by 3.

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling Health care? (half sample)

* Democrats by 8.

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling Immigration issues? (half sample)

* Democrats by 6.

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling Helping the middle class? (half sample)

* Democrats by 20.

Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling Issues that are especially important to women? (half sample)

* Democrats by 30.

Which political party is closer to your own opinion on the issue of abortion, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans)?

* Democrats by 8.

Which political party is closer to your own opinion on the issue of gay marriage, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans)?

* Democrats by 14.

Which political party is closer to your own opinion on the issue of whether or not to raise the minimum wage, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans)?

* Democrats by 16.

Which political party is closer to your own opinion on the issue of global warming, also known as climate change, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans)?

* Democrats by 18.
Yes, this is being called a bad poll for Democrats. It would be understandable if you wondered what would constitute a good poll for Democrats.

Unfortunately for Democrats, President Obama gets weak numbers (41% approval, 52% disapproval). He gets lousy marks on the economy (42%/54%), Russia and Ukraine (34%/46%), and health care (37%/57%).

But ponder that last data point for a second -- Obama is at –20 on health care, but Democrats are favored over Republicans on health care by 8 points (see above). That tells me that a lot of people don't think Obama is doing a great job, but still prefer a Democratic approach to health care. (Another new poll, from Kaiser, says 58% of Americans want Obamacare improved and only 35% want it repealed and replaced).

Yes, Democrats are in some trouble this year, based on the Post/ABC poll -- Republican voters are much more motivated to vote, and Republicans get higher marks on spending, the deficit, and guns.

Much is being made of this question:
(Among registered voters) Do you think it's more important (to have the Democrats in charge of Congress, to help support Obama's policies), or (to have the Republicans in charge of Congress, to act as a check on Obama's policies)?

* Republicans 53%, Democrats 39%
But elsewhere in the same poll, Democrats actually have a tiny lead on the generic ballot, 45%/44%.

So when you mention Obama, the six-year blues kick in and voters get restless. When you mention the two parties generically, Democratic ideas mostly still win. That's where we are.

4 comments:

Victor said...

Maybe the smartest thing Republicans did, was to tie Obama to EVERY SINGLE ISSUE!

And so, if his poll numbers were low - as are most President's after 6 years - then people would vote against Democrats, even if they agree with them on almost ALL issues.

You've gotta give them credit - Republicans know how to play politics.
Democrats - eh... not so much.

W James Casper said...

Say what you will...but I have absolutely no intention of voting for Obama in 2014 or 2016. In fact, it's likely I'll never vote for him again...

giantslor said...

It's mind boggling that people think the country needs MORE Republican intransigence in Congress, not less. And yet they complain that all the parties do is bicker and nothing ever gets done.

Also of concern is that this was a poll of all adults, which trends more Democratic than likely voters.

2016 can't get here fast enough.

Philo Vaihinger said...

Sometimes that thumbs up or down stuff is annoying and hides real differences.

I am unhappy with the Administration re Russia because I think we are being way too meddlesome and need to get out of NATO, anyway.

If the Germans really want to fight another war with Russia over the Ukraine, I say we stay the hell out of it.