WHY DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T CARE WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THE WAR

In a New York Times roundtable discussion, pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson says that President Trump's Iran war is unpopular because he's unpopular.

Kristen Soltis Anderson: Well, in the absence of a clear case for why we have entered into this conflict, people’s attitudes about it really are just reflective of, do you generally trust Donald Trump or not?

... And so, things like approval of the war tend to track pretty closely with things like Donald Trump’s overall job approval figures....

And I think that’s where the White House has sort of run into a challenge of its own making on this, in that there are some justifications for military engagement in Iran that do get better numbers than just, “How do you feel about Donald Trump today?” The American public is very eager that Iran not be able to have nuclear capabilities, and so on and so forth.

But in the absence of evidence, or a compelling case being made that this is the reason we’ve done this, people have sort of defaulted to, “Do I trust Donald Trump or not?” And, problematically for the White House right now, that means that you are starting with approval for this war that is lower than approval for almost any conflict that the United States has entered into in recent decades.

But it's not clear that the White House cares. In an Atlantic story about the large number of people -- including journalists -- who appear to have Trump's personal phone number, we're told:

The scrum for fleeting—and often conflicting—presidential utterances has made it difficult for the government to sell a clear story to the American people. Yet Trump’s advisers have no plans to intervene. “He enjoys it,” that official continued. “He knows how to handle the press.”

This suggests to me that most people in the Trump White House feel it's perfectly fine if Trump is the war's main salesman, even though he doesn't have a clear message. They're content if the war is no more popular than Trump is, for an obvious reason. The Wall Street Journal reports:

... Trump’s team is privately trying to reassure the president that conservatives aren’t abandoning him. They have provided him with polling data in recent days that they say shows the war is popular with his supporters, people familiar with the matter said.

That's clear from surveys like the most recent Quinnipiac poll:

Democrats (89 - 7 percent) and independents (60 - 31 percent) oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while Republicans (85 - 11 percent) support it.

Optimists are expecting a bloodbath for the GOP in the midterms, but how bad can it really get? A party needs 218 seats to take control of the House. The Cook Political Report rates 185 seats as "solid Republican" and another 17 seats as "likely Republican." Beyond that, 4 seats "lean Republican." There are similar numbers on the Democratic side. Cook regards only 17 seats as true tossups. A wave election could change all this -- but Trumpian election interference might even prevent Democrats from winning the majority that now seems all but inevitable.

Trump won't be able to get legislation through a Democratic House, but he already bypasses Congress for nearly everything he wants to do. He can be investigated by House Democrats, but how often do congressional investigations change anything in America? He could be impeached by a Democratic House, but conviction and removal from office would require a large number of Republican votes -- 16 if the Democratic caucus holds 51 seats (or probably 17 because John Fetterman will vote to acquit).

I keep thinking about this map:

It's G. Elliott Morris's assessment of Trump's state-by-state popularity. (You can see the numbers for individual states by cursoring over the map here.)

Trump has positive ratings in 14 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Based on 2020 census numbers, these states have 12.57% of the U.S. population -- but 28% of the senators (28 out of 100).

Then we have Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and South Carolina, the four states where Trump is underwater by less than 3%. Morris's polls seem to lean somewhat Democratic, so these states may also be pro-Trump. Trump won them easily in all three of his elections. Now we're up to 18.29% of the population -- and 36% of the senators (36 out of 100), enough to block a vote to convict in any impeachment of Trump (or one of his subordinates).

So the Republicans have a built-in advantage in the Senate because the Framers gave two senators to each state, regardless of size. And the House is so gerrymandered that very few House members need to worry about appealing to swing voters.

No wonder Trump doesn't think he needs to care what Democrats or independents think. No wonder he's fine if support for the war equals personal loyalty to him -- most Republicans still love him, so they'll support the war.

Trump doesn't need to explain his motives to his base. All he needs to say is "I, Donald Trump, want to do this," and he can continue doing whatever he wants to do.