WHY DOES NPR SEEM TO BE PROMOTING A POSSIBLE TRUMP ELECTION INTERVENTION?

I woke up to this Bluesky post from NPR:

Nearly half of Americans support the National Guard monitoring November's elections, potentially signaling an openness to the sort of nationalizing of elections that President Trump says he wants. n.pr/3P1Scjw

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— NPR (@npr.org) March 11, 2026 at 7:03 AM

This would be shockingly anti-democratic election interference, but NPR's take appears to be "Hey, it's not so bad -- almost half the country is cool with it." NPR's write-up of the poll notes that interference of this kind would violate the law, yet the tone of the write-up is measured:

Close to half of Americans support the idea of the National Guard at polling places to monitor this November's midterm elections — something that would be illegal if ordered by the federal government — potentially signaling an openness, especially by Republicans, to the sort of nationalizing of elections that President Trump says he wants.

That datapoint comes from a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out Wednesday, which found 46% of Americans support the idea, compared to 54% who say they oppose it.

(The Brennan Center has more on the illegality of sending troops to the polls here.)

NPR mentions an "openness, especially by Republicans" to a military intervention in elections because, as in so many recent polls, Democrats and independents are on one side and Republicans are on the other.

But how did this idea get a positive response from double-digit percentages of Democrats and independents? I'm sure it happened in part because the question in the poll didn't mention Trump. Here's the wording:

How much do you support or oppose having the National Guard at voting locations to monitor November's election?

There's no reference to Trump -- the only person who wants to do this. It's quite possible that at least some respondents, especially some of the 25% of Democrats who think it could be a good idea, are imagining that state or local officials might decide to deploy the Guard for benign reasons.

I assume that if Trump's name had appeared in the question, the favorable numbers among Democrats and independents would have been much lower. Trump's overall job approval in this poll is a woeful 38%, with 57% disapproval; he's at 5% approval among Democrats and 34% approval among independents, and strong disapproval is at 50% overall. And in a midterm election that will be a referendum on the president, Democrats lead by a whopping 9 points, 53% to 44%, on the generic-ballot question.

It's as if NPR, PBS, and Marist felt it would be biased to mention Trump in a question about an intervention that will happen only if he orders it. NPR's poll write-up bends over backwards to imagine other scenarios in which the Guard might be deployed:

The finding is complicated by the fact that the National Guard can legally be used to support elections in many capacities when ordered by state governors.

And many Americans may be more open to military protection for elections now that the U.S. is at war with Iran, said Florida State University professor Michael Morley, an expert in election law.

"I think the conflict with Iran and recent terrorist bombing attempt in New York may influence public opinion on this issue, especially over the next few weeks," Morley said in an email to NPR. "Most of the time having the National Guard at polling places would be seen as unnecessary. But I think most average Americans may be far more worried about the possibility of a terrorist attack than they are about the National Guard."

It's as if NPR is trying to help Trump sell this idea by suggesting a pretext for why it might be done.

The benign interpretation of this is that it's the mainstream media's usual "view from nowhere" perspective: We can't describe the world of politics as it actually is because that would seem biased against Republicans, so we'll imagine a world in which all the parties are reasonable and everyone is proceeding in good faith. The less benign view is that NPR is preparing us psychologically for an illegal intervention by attempting to normalize it.

Another possible reason that the pro-Guard numbers are high might be the fact that, in the poll, this question follows several other questions on election integrity:

* How confident are you that your state or local government will run a fair and accurate election this November?

* How much confidence do you have that ballots cast in the election will be counted accurately?

* From this list, what is the biggest threat to keeping our elections safe and accurate? Voter fraud. Misleading information. Voter suppression. Foreign interference. Problems at your polling place such as long lines or broken machines.

* Which concerns you more: Making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so. Making sure that no one else votes who is not eligible to vote.

* How likely, if at all, do you think it is that during November’s elections many people will show up to vote and be told they are not eligible?

* How likely, if at all, do you think it is that during November’s elections there will be voter fraud, that is, people who are not eligible to vote will vote, or vote more than once?

After all that fear is stirred up, no wonder nearly half of poll respondents think the Guard might be a good idea.

You can almost see the suspicion creep in as the poll progresses. In answer to the first question, 66% of respondents say they're confident that their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election this November. Then 63% say they're confident that the ballots will be counted accurately. Then comes the fear, seemingly induced by poll questions suggesting that surely something will be hinky.

33% of adults think the biggest threat to safe and secure elections is voter fraud. 26% say misleading information is the biggest threat followed by voter suppression (24%), foreign interference (8%), and problems at their polling place (7%)....

Democrats (41%) are most concerned with voter suppression while Republicans think the biggest threat to above board elections is voter fraud (57%). A plurality of independents (32%) mention misleading information followed by voter fraud (28%) and voter suppression (23%).

I can't blame the poll for the fact that 33% of respondents think voter fraud is the biggest worry in elections. (That includes 57% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats, and 28% of independents.) Nearly every mainstream news story about Republican claims of massive voter fraud say that fraud is not "widespread" -- a word that doesn't convey how extraordinarily rare it is. I can't blame most Americans for believing that it happens at least a fair amount, just not all the time.

I'd like to see some polling on elections that reflects the world we actually live in. For instance: What percentage of elections won by Democrats do Republicans think are legitimate -- and vice versa? (I know there are Democratic 2024 election truthers -- I'm not one of them -- but I think many, if not most, Republicans believe that every Democratic win is fraudulent.) What percentage of each party's votes do poll respondents believe are illegitimate? (The real answer is a fraction of a percent.) But that's not what we have here.