Tuesday, September 07, 2021


I don't think this will be true six months from now, but it's unsettling:
A new poll has placed former President Donald Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. election, slightly edging Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.

A national Emerson College Poll found that if the two men were to go head-to-head in 2024, Trump would be slightly favored with 47 percent against Biden's 46 percent.
Afghanistan has caused Biden's approval rating to drop to the mid-40s. It may not fully recover, but I think it will improve soon.

As for Trump, he may complain about his forced withdrawal from the spotlight, but he's benefiting from it. Polling shows that some people who'd had enough of George W. Bush in late 2008 now like him, regarding him as a genial old painter rather than as the man responsible for two quagmire wars and a global economic collapse. Trump's absence from Twitter is undoubtedly having a similar effect -- some Americans may not remember how noxious and dangerous he was now that his public presence is limited to odd, tweet-like press releases and the occasional rally. He's ignorable now. To some people, I'm sure that's making him seem benign.

So maybe we'd be better off if Trump's social media bans were dropped and we were reminded on a daily or even hourly basis of just what we hated about him for four years. I know that well over 40% of the country would be thrilled by every tweet, while it would be exhausting for those of us who loathed Trump all along. But I think it would remind people in the fence-sitters that he was a terrible human being and we're better off without him.

A year from now, he'll be back. He'll be making campaign appearances in the midterms and it will almost seem as if he never went away. And then, undoubtedly, he'll announce that he's running for president again.

If I'm right about this, his poll numbers will go down once he's impossible to ignore again. That will be a good thing.

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