Thursday, September 19, 2019


A Fox News poll released last night is the latest survey to show all the leading Democrats beating President Trump nationwide:

But there's even better news when you dig into the numbers. The survey tells us that voters seem quite eager to vote next year.

In 2015, the "Extremely" number was never higher than 32% -- in fact, the number was never higher than 49% during the entire election year of 2016.

But it's the crosstabs that are the best news for the Democrats: 61% of women are extremely interested in the election, as opposed to 57% of men. Among non-white women, 65% are extremely interested. For Democrats, the "extremely interested" number is 65% (the GOP number is 60%). Democratic women: 67%. Suburban women: 66%. (Rural whites: 53%.) Clinton voters 68%, Trump voters 61%. Liberals 70%, conservatives 54%. Democratic primary voters: 67%.

I know -- it's one poll. Polling subsamples have huge margins of error. Still, these are good numbers. It looks as if the right groups are pumped up.

In a follow-up question, in which 62% of respondents say they're "extremely" motivated to vote in the 2020 presidential election, there are similar good numbers in the subsamples: women 65% (men 59%); non-white women 69%; Democrats 69% (Republicans 63%); Democratic women 73%; suburban women 67%; Clinton voters 72%; liberals 73% (conservatives 59%). This is good news.

Oh, and one more thing: Respondents are asked how they feel about "changing the health care system so that every American can buy into Medicare if they want to." This is very popular -- 68% are in favor, 24% opposed. But a complete switchover to Medicare for All ("Getting rid of private health insurance and moving to a government-run health care system for everyone") isn't unpopular -- it's at parity: 46% in favor, 48% opposed. If there's more polling like this, it might be a sign that this position, shared by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, isn't the electoral millstone a lot of observers think it is. And a public option, Joe Biden's position, is very popular.

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