Saturday, January 19, 2019


The Washington Post story about President Trump's new shutdown proposal suggests that what he's proposed has already been rejected by both sides:
President Trump on Saturday offered Democrats three years of deportation protections for some immigrants in exchange for $5.7 billion in border wall funding, a proposal immediately rejected by Democrats and derided by conservatives as amnesty....

Trump’s proposal was pilloried by some of his most fervent supporters, including conservative author and commentator Ann Coulter.

“Trump proposes amnesty. We voted for Trump and got Jeb!” Coulter tweeted.
But the Toronto Star's ace Washington reporter, Daniel Dale, warns us not to read too much into that:

A Free Republic thread in response to Coulter's comments confirms Dale's observation:
I like Ann but she is ALL wrong here..first of all, its NOT amnesty..a 3 year protection is NOT amnesty, its basically saying “You can live here for 3 years no worries” Trump KNEW Dems would reject it..he’s making THEM look like the fools they are..come on Ann don’t you realize that


Does anyone still give a rat’s @ss what Ann Coulter thinks?


I wish this attention whore would choke on a chicken bone. She was pushing us to vote for mitt mitt mitt!


Ann’s “best if used by date” expired a long time ago.


Ann, for God’s sakes trust POTUS!


Coulter? Who wanted Chris Christie and Romney to be prez? That didnt age too well. How dare this bitch criticize Trump’s clever political gambits. She is a moron.
The reaction to the proposal in Breitbart comments is also mostly positive:

So, to the MAGA base, the God Emperor is still the God Emperor, regardless of what Ann Coulter says.

My favorite game theorist on the right, Hot Air's Allahpundit, believes the proposal is dead in the Senate -- it won't get the need 60 votes and might not even get 50.
Virtually all of the red-state Dems who might have struggled with this offer were up for reelection this past November. The ones who survived, like Joe Manchin, won’t have to worry about facing voters again until 2024, an eternity in the Trump era when political developments move at light speed. The only Dem who *might* throw POTUS a bone here purely out of self-interest is Doug Jones, who’s facing a longshot reelection bid in Alabama next year. But Jones has been stubborn since joining Congress; he hasn’t joined Trump on many big votes despite the pressure on him to pander to conservatives back home. (He voted no on Kavanaugh, remember.) I think he’s come to the conclusion, correctly, that he’s a sure loser next year no matter how he votes, in which case he might as well vote his conscience and let the electoral chips fall where they may. So Trump might not even get him.

But let’s say he does. That’s one Democratic vote. McConnell would need seven to beat a filibuster. Who are the other six? And are we absolutely sure that all 53 Republicans will vote yes, if only as a vote of confidence in Trump’s approach? I don’t know that Tom Cotton, for instance, would sign off on even a temporary amnesty.... [For Senate Democrats] to lunge at Trump’s offer now would mean damaging Pelosi’s leverage and handing the media a gift-wrapped “DEMOCRATIC CIVIL WAR OVER TRUMP’S OFFER” headline. It would be a clear signal from Senate Dems that Trump is right, that he’s the sensible party in all this and Pelosi is the mindless obstructionist who doesn’t care about federal workers getting paid. The left would be irate at the betrayal. It’s unimaginable that Dems would break ranks in this climate and turn it into a “Senate Democrats versus House Democrats” storyline.
And here's the key point:
...Especially at a moment when POTUS is signaling that he’s tired of the shutdown himself.... He’s coming to the table and trying to jumpstart a deal to end the crisis, a hint that he’s desperate to end this before he suffers any more political damage. Why would Democrats throw him a lifeline? They’ll probably take this afternoon’s speech as a sign that it’s almost over and he’s ready to cave if they hold out just a bit longer.
But maybe POTUS and Kushner believe that, if nothing else, this might invite a Democratic counteroffer that can move the two sides towards a more meaningful compromise. If Jones votes no on “BRIDGE for wall” but comes back with the idea of “DREAM for wall,” what happens then? This is one way to maybe shake that scenario loose.
I think that's what comes next: Democratic disdain will be followed by a counteroffer that might move this all to a resolution. I don't know if Stephen Miller will allow Trump to do what he'd need to do to get this resolved, but if he does, this may end conventionally -- with private discussions and compromise. Or maybe Trump and the hard-liners he listens to won't let that happen. If it does, though, MAGA Nation will be flexible, as long as it can be argued, however implausibly, that he won.

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