Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Is this thing tightening again?

Bush is up by just 2 in Ohio, per CNN/USA Today/Gallup. (Early in the month, Bush led by 8 in the same poll.) If Gallup's oversampling Republicans, who's really winning?

The composite has Bush's EV lead narrowing to 273-241. (Bush has recently been over 300.)

Meanwhile ... yeah, the International Communications Research (who?) poll has Bush up by 10 (likely voters)/8 (registered voters), but the L.A. Times has a Bush lead of 5 (likely)/4 (registered) -- both per Polling Report.

UPDATE: From the L.A. Times story on its poll:

Nineteen percent of likely voters said the debate could affect their vote, whereas 79% said it was not likely to. One good sign for Kerry: 63% of those who said the debate could change their mind now support Bush, and 27% back the Democrat.

Am I doing the math right? Does that mean nearly 12% of surveyed voters are Bush supporters who might switch? That's a real opportunity.

No comments: