Saturday, September 05, 2015


Should we really believe that Donald Trump would beat every Democrat in a general election?
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday.

The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.

In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice President Joe Biden by 44 percent to 42 percent; and former Vice President Al Gore by 44 percent to 41 percent.
Here's why I don't believe this.

If you go to the poll, you see a lot of numbers that strain credulity. It isn't just that Trump gets 31% of the Hispanic vote against Clinton (and similar numbers against Sanders, Biden, and Gore). It's that Trump gets between 21% and 26% of black voters against the Democrats. (Including midterm elections, Republicans haven't won more than 11% of the black vote since 1996, though they did win 10% in the low-turnout 2014 midterms.)

The poll also says that Trump would get 14% of "strong Democrats" in a race with Clinton -- and the same percentage against Sanders and Biden. He'd get 16% against Gore. And he'd get 17% of "very liberal" voters against Gore, Biden, and -- yes -- even Sanders, while his number versus Clinton would be 18%.

That's nuts.

I do believe that Trump is no longer the most beatable candidate in the Republican race. If you look at the Real Clear Politics general-election matchups against Clinton, it's clear that Trump has caught up with (or surpassed) the other Republicans in electability. Clinton still beats all of them, but the margins, for the most part, are narrowing.

SurveyUSA says that Trump beats Clinton in part because of a massive gender gap (20 points). That would seem to jibe with the recent surge in approval of Trump among Republicans -- Gallup says Trump's improved numbers since mid-July are entirely the result of greater popularity among Republican men. I wouldn't be surprised if some Democratic men are also feeling hormonal surges as they watch Trump.

I very much believe that Trump could win a general election in this country at this time. I think Democrats are much more vulnerable than many people believe, and I think Hillary Clinton is quite vulnerable. But I don't believe this poll.


Unknown said...

Oh, Steve, Steve, Steve: you gotta believe, lieve, lieve. What's with all the negative waves? Let them have their fun: we GOT this!

Ray said...

The GOP and the MSM has to do something make the race look close or they lose big in profits.

Victor said...

I'm less optimistic than you, @unknown - but more so than Steve is.

I find Trump less scary because he's not some Theocratic loon, like the rest of the KKKlowns in the GOP KKKlown KKKaravan.
He's xenophobic and misogynistic enough to turn on the white voters, especially males, and certainly enough of an Authoritarian. But I'm not sure if he was elected, he would follow through with what he's talked about.
I have no doubt about any of the rest of the GOP's candidates would love to take this country back to the Gilded Age and all that that would entail.

I'm not saying Trump wouldn't. But I have my doubts because over the decades, he's been all over the map as far as having Democratic or Republican beliefs on issues.

He's an actor/performance artist at heart, and he's giving this audience what it wants.
For now.
Let's see how he lasts, since there's a long time to go until the primaries.

I can deal with Fascism and Plutocracy, because we've gotten increased dosages of them in the last 4+ decades, and have gotten used to them.
We don't like them, but...

What I don't want to face is a government full of Theocratic Fascist Plutocrats!

mlbxxxxxx said...

Trump is no longer the easiest to beat -- on paper. Anyone who gains momentum, gains momentum -- and looks like less of a loser than his competition. Trump remains, imo, the easiest to beat in a absolute sense because he seems determined to personally insult every voter Hillary needs. GOTV is her achilles heel -- not emailghazi. Nobody's going to piss off, and therefore motivate, minority voters better than Trump.

Go Trump!

The New York Crank said...

Trump is a loose cannon, which is exactly what you do not want in the White House, regardless of party or his (possibly) liberal sentiments. So imagine this scenario. Trump gets elected. Putin, just to pull the tiger's tail, rolls a few tanks into Poland, figuring that'll force us to the table to negotiate over matters ranging from Nato's borders, to Ukraine, to the Bering Sea.

Instead, The Donald gets his testosterone flowing in overdrive. "Nuke 'em!" he cries.

"Holy shit, we actually have a commander in chief who can get our hearts pumping again," think the grateful generals.

World War III? Kaboom!

Hard to imagine that with Hillary, or Bernie, or — God help us — even Jeb!

Yours very crankily,
The New York Crank

Palli said...

I think the hoopla of Trump is serving one purpose: to make the rest of us believe there is more support for all the GOP candidates than there actually is. Republican operatives are laying the foundation for plausible ballot tabulation fraud.

Altering the E-count is an easy process but altering the votes will have to be spread over many, many states & precincts to evade discovery. Therefore the GOP presents many candidates, each with a over-rated carefully groomed niche constituency throughout the nation. With the pledge in place for candidates, everyone will assume the loyalty of fictional supporters of each candidate. As in 2004, an election will be a hoax. Even if the old guard back room GOP brokers the convention against Trump, he has served his purpose & won protection for future business ventures.

Democrats are too invested in the status quo & the hypocrisy of American democratic process to call out the E-vote GOP master plan that originated with the infamous rejection of hanging chads.
E-voting can be fixed...who is so stupid as to believe the GOP has the honesty or integrity not to use it?

Phil Perspective said...

You're 100% right. So, Survey USA is now becoming Rasmussen? Interesting.

Unknown said...

- If HRC & Trump are the nominees, which one do you vote for?
'You mean, today, more than a year before Election Day, right?'
- Pretend it's today, or project, but either way, be totally honest.
'So fiction - you know it, I know it, everyone on this planet knows it, but I should pretend Realsies?'
- Currect.
'But regardless: what I say NOW doesn't mean President Trump, cuz that's cray-cray?
- We ask that you do your best.
'[pause; big smile breaks out] OKAY: Trump!'

The assumption, backed by multiple serious studies, goes: a current poll holds meaning. What if you threw a challenge to that assumption as red meant before a class of super smart, clever, mischievous, playful physics undergrads? I don't even think it would take that: give it to Colbert and his writing team and POOOOOFFF!