Saturday, September 19, 2015

I'M NOT SURE I BELIEVE FIORINA IS WINNING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

I don't want to turn this into a poll blog, but I see that a new survey from a firm called Voter Gravity (which is primarily in the business of helping political operations raise money using data) finds Carly Fiorina in the lead in New Hampshire:



I'm skeptical. The same firm had Fiorina beating Donald Trump in Iowa after the August GOP debate, with Ben Carson ahead of both:



That was at a time when every other poll of Iowa showed Trump well ahead of Fiorina, and always in first place (although one poll in August had Trump and Carson tied at 23%, with Fiorina in third at 10%).

But who knows? There was also a national poll after the debate with Fiorina tying Trump for the lead, but the poll was sponsored by One America News Network -- the folks who brought Sarah Palin back to cable television last month -- and was conducted by the poorly rated firm Gravis Marketing. But maybe the boom is real. If so, let's see if Fiorina can sustain it -- Trump is doing a great job of milking the story of the Obama's-a-Muslim questioner, so I imagine we'll see him leading a few more polls soon.

3 comments:

M. Bouffant said...

However & for whom polls are conducted, I'd guess many, many Republicans, conservatives & right-leaning independents who are polled are supporting the flavor of the moment &/or whoever said the most idiotic/radical thing in the previous 24 hrs., thinking they are really pissing off/scaring the media & the libtards.

No one can know anything* until the field's been winnowed; barring revealing gaffes in future debates or on the trail look for the dropping-out to start Thanksgiving wknd. The 15 December debate may give us a more realistic group if enough have decided they might as well spend Xmas w/ the family as waste more time & money.

*Could've dropped the mic right there, really.

Aunt Snow said...

Nobody's "winning" or "beating" anyone until votes are cast.

Never Ben Better said...

Meanwhile, this morning's lead story on CNN.com is how Fiorina has rocketed up in some poll while Trump has dropped. Looks like TPTB in GOP-Land have decided to use Carly to take him out. Then when he's safely disposed of they can nudge her aside for one of the guys (Bush or Kasich) they really want.