THE ELECTION-STEALING PROBLEM TRUMP HASN'T SOLVED: THE SPECTACLE OF ELECTION DAY

Surprising absolutely no one, the president and his allies have been arguing that the upcoming midterms are rigged. The Washington Post reports:

President Donald Trump and his allies have spent the final weeks before the midterms showering his supporters with a relentless stream of doubt about the legitimacy of the election, priming them to question results if Republicans lose.

In court, the administration is telegraphing its readiness to challenge results based on alleged fraud. In podcasts and social media posts that are delivered nonstop to Trump’s core backers, right-wing influencers are telling supporters to expect cheating.

... That messaging has, in particular, pushed overstated claims that noncitizens are on voter rolls and that mail-in ballots enable widespread fraud — themes that are twice as prevalent as they were during the 2024 election cycle, The Post’s analysis found.

This has been going on for a decade -- as the Post notes, "Trump has questioned election results ever since 2016, when he won the presidency but lost the popular vote and alleged that more than 3 million people voted illegally." But all it's done, except among Trump's base, is convey the impression that Trump is a whiny little sore loser.

A survey this month by The Post, ABC News and Ipsos found just 28 percent of Americans are confident Trump will accept the results if Republicans lose.

A solid majority of Americans think the election will be fair and honest, according to multiple surveys. From the Post:

The New York Times says:

And from NPR:

Three-quarters of likely voters are confident that their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election.

That includes solid majorities of Democrats (88%), Republicans (68%) and independents (75%), but Republicans were 20 points less likely than Democrats to think they would be run well. MAGA supporters were almost 30 points less likely.

Trump, his party, and his media allies have succeeded in making Republican voters much more paranoid about elections than Democrats, but even among Republicans, only a minority believe that elections are crooked and rigged.

Why have the would-be election stealers failed at thoroughly discrediting elections?

I think there's something about Election Day, and the election process in general, that they haven't found a way to discredit and don't quite understand. I know that there's no single "Election Day" anymore, but even across multiple days, the process has the feeling of a good old-fashioned civic ritual, with ordinary people -- people who could be your neighbors -- checking in voters, and ordinary people voting. It doesn't feel corrupt. It feels wholesome.

The vote counting is more of a media spectacle, but it taps into our inclination to enjoy contests -- sporting events, reality TV, entertainment awards. I've said this a few times over the years: the media rituals of vote counting seem straghtforward and focused on fine details. Harry Enten and Steve Kornacki will be on your TV talking about not just the current vote totals, but how many votes are outstanding in which precincts, suggesting a potential for certain outcomes that might or might not happen. It's similar to the way baseball announcers might discuss a pitcher's statistics as he's facing a batter with the potential winning run on second base. The impression conveyed is of a contest that's real and legitimate.

On Election Night, even Fox News covers the results this way, for the most part. This year, I assume CBS will do the same. The results are genuinely in doubt. Reporters and analysts don't talk as if the whole thing is fake and predetermined. We hear about waves of emotion at party headquarters. Some races are called quickly and others are in doubt for hours or days, and no one seemed to know in advance which ones would fall into which categories. It all feels real. And it feels real in part because we participated in it.

I don't think Republican disinformationists understands this. They certainly haven't figured out a way to counter it. I think that partly explains why they haven't even persuaded most of their own electorate that the whole thing is fake.