THE MEDIA BELIEVES IN TWO CONTRADICTORY MONOCULTURES, NEITHER OF WHICH EXISTS

There's a new poll out from NPR, PBS, and Marist College, and it says what nearly every recent poll says: Most of America disapproves of the actions of the Trump administration, and Trump's Republican supporters are the outliers. Independent voters aren't as overwhelmingly opposed to Trump as Democrats, but they're strongly opposed nonetheless. Some examples:

91% of Democrats and 68% of independents say ICE's action are making Americans somewhat less or much less safe. In fact, 80% of Democrats and 56% of independents believe ICE is making Americans much less safe. However, 77% of Republicans report the actions of ICE are making Americans much more safe or somewhat more safe....

Six in ten Americans (60%) disapprove of the job ICE is doing. 33% approve. Democrats (91%) overwhelmingly disapprove of the agency's performance, and 66% of independents agree. Nearly three in four Republicans (73%), though, approve of how ICE is doing its job....

Nearly six in ten Americans (59%) think the demonstrations around the country to oppose the actions of ICE are mostly legitimate protests. 40%, though. say the demonstrations are mostly people acting unlawfully. Again, stark partisan differences exist, with 85% of Democrats and 65% of independents reporting these demonstrations are mostly legitimate protests. 75% of Republicans say they are mostly people acting unlawfully....

Seven in ten Democrats (70%) and almost six in ten independents (58%) think lowering prices should be the focus of the Trump Administration. A plurality of Republicans (44%), though, assert controlling immigration should be the Administration’s top priority....

56% of Americans say placing tariffs or fees on imported products from other countries hurts the U.S. economy.... Democrats (87%) and independents (63%) are more likely than Republicans (20%) to say tariffs hurt the economy. About two in three Republicans (66%) say tariffs benefit the national economy.

As I keep saying, on most issues these days, Democrats are the normal ones. Roughly two thirds of independents agree with us on nearly every issue. Republicans are the out-of-touch oddballs.

And yet it remains an article of faith in the media that heartland white Republicans are the "real" Americans, and Trump critics really aren't Americans at all.

But if we shift to the realm of popular culture, the opposite view holds. A large percentage of highly successful pop culture figures lean left. Awards shows, like the recent Grammys, can seem like anti-Trump political rallies.

The media believes that America loves entertainers who are proudly progressive, but also believes that "real" Americans are right-wing. Does anyone in the press ever wonder how both of these things could be true?

I don't think either perception is fully accurate. The majority of Americans seem to be leaning to the left right now, but many people in the middle aren't there permanently. Some voted for Donald Trump in 2024, and they may vote for downballot Republicans in the future. The one thing I'm certain of is that angry, cruelty-is-the-point MAGA/Fox News Republicans aren't the majority in this country. They're not normative. But because every state has two U.S. senators regardless of population, including small, rural, right-leaning states, and also because the Electoral College is apportioned based on congressional representation, right-wingers wield disproportionate political power in America. They don't need to win the popular vote to control the Senate or win the White House.

That plus the fact that they vote for Trump in somewhat larger numbers than pollsters expect leads the political media to believe that urban and suburban liberals and leftists are the oddballs and Republicans are normative. But the pro-Republican "vibe shift" that supposedly happened in 2024 has now been over for months. Pro-Trump voters aren't normative.

But they exist, and they've surprised some of us by buying tickets for the documentary Melania. The film was expected to make $5 million at the box office; it's made more than $9 million so far. Expectations were based on poor advance ticket sales, but the audience for Melania is older, and Baby Boomers are the least likely moviegoers to buy tickets in advance.

The movie still won't make enough to turn a profit, but there's a niche audience for it -- part of the same niche audience that thinks ICE is doing a swell job right now and that believes Trump's tariffs are awesome.

And I just want to warn you that Turning Point USA's alternate Super Bowl halftime show starring Kid Rock could get decent ratings. We shouldn't assume that it will be a flop. I expect it to find its niche audience, too, even though the real Super Bowl halftime show starring Bad Bunny will have higher ratings.

I wish political commentators understood that the current political divide mimics the pop-culture divide: hardcore Republicans are out there -- but they're the minority.