BIDEN NEEDS TO DEBATE BECAUSE SWING VOTERS NEED TO HEAR HIM SPEAK

You and I know where Joe Biden and Donald Trump stand on the issues. Most Republican partisans do too. But swing voters, who tend to know less about policy positions, often judge candidates based on how they carry themselves, or how they speak.

This week, The New York Times published a transcript of a focus group consisting of twelve women who voted for Trump in 2020. Some are critical of Trump now, but none of them like Biden. One of the moderators, Kristen Soltis Anderson, asks the women for one word to describe Biden. Anderson focuses on two of the responses:

Moderator, Kristen Soltis Anderson
Gaylin, you said “incompetent.” Tell me a little bit about that.

Gaylin, 31, Georgia, independent, white, stay-at-home mom
When he speaks, he seems so lost and confused. And you don’t feel the power in his speaking the way I felt like I felt when Donald Trump addressed the nation. It’s just not as firm or direct. It’s not even like he’s reading a script. It’s more just like he’s kind of blubbering through.

Moderator, Kristen Soltis Anderson
OK. Teri, I know you said you didn’t want to say anything mean. There’s not really a positive spin on the word “idiot.” Tell me what makes that the word that comes to mind for you.

Teri, 44, Wisconsin, independent, white, systems analyst
Trump was always confident in his speeches, very involved, fighting for his passion or very vocal, which could be good or bad, whereas Biden is very scripted. It’s basically what he’s being told to do, how he’s being told to do it. And he’s just like a little lost wanderer. I just feel that makes him look like an idiot because he’s not thinking on his own. He’s not thinking smartly.

I believe this is why Biden's poll numbers are lower that Bill Clinton's and Barack Obama's at a comparable point in their presidencies. Clinton and Obama were vilified by Republicans, but they were vigorous, eloquent speakers. I'm certain this made a difference for some voters -- they weren't sure what they believed or whose policies would be better for them, but they heard these presidents and believed the country was in good hands.

Biden can be eloquent! He delivered a great State of the Union address. Debating Trump is risky, but it can be very good for Biden.

Mitt Romney thinks he has the advantage of being underestimated:

“I think people have very low expectations as to what President Biden will do. I think they have much higher expectations about President Trump and his competitiveness.”

Politico says Trump World is expecting Biden to fail:

Trump’s team is projecting confidence and gloating that Biden actually fell into their trap. The former president has been a broken record, insisting he’ll debate Biden “anytime, anywhere, anyplace” and pressuring the president to accept.

The [debate] agreement, Trump allies say, gives the former president a chance to try to showcase that the 81-year-old incumbent has lost a step....

It's very good for Biden if the bar is set lower for him than for Trump -- and it sure looks as if the Trump campaign is helping Biden to adjust the bar.

Biden has to avoid unforced errors, obviously. But apart from that, he has to stand his ground and demonstrate that he can make a case for himself. He might not do it, but I think he can, and he's running against a candidate who thinks he can't possibly do it. Agreeing to these debates was a good move.