Some people who should know better believe that Robert Kennedy Jr. really might be catching on with a significant segment of the Democratic electorate. They point to his best polls -- a CNN poll in May in which he was chosen by 20% of respondents (President Biden was at 60%) and an Emerson poll in May in which Kennedy was picked by 21% of respondents (Biden was at 70%). But he's now averaging 14% (to Biden's 64%) according to the Real Clear Politics average.
But isn't that a relatively high number? Doesn't that mean his message is catching on among Democrats?
No, it isn't. Here's how you can tell.
A few pollsters have asked Democratic respondents to choose from candidate fields that are pure fantasy -- long lists of Democratic names, sometimes including President Biden, sometimes not. In those polls, Kennedy's numbers are very weak.
In Kennedy's best multi-candidate poll -- a mid-June survey from the Republican polling firm McLaughlin & Associates -- Kennedy is at a lowly 5%. He's tied with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for fifth, behind Biden (28%), Michelle Obama (18%), Bernie Sanders (8%), and Kamala Harris (7%). He does beat Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Gretchen Whitmer, Marianne Williamson, Joe Manchin, Phil Murphy, and J.B. Pritzker. But in other multi-candidate polls, he does worse.
In an early-June poll from Premise, Kennedy finished eighth in a Biden-less field, with 4% of registered voters and 5% of all adults. Harris, Sanders, Clinton, Newsom were all in double digits; AOC, Buttigieg, and Warren also beat him. And in a late-May/early-June survey from TIPP, Kennedy was at 3%, tied with Warren and Buttigieg for eighth place; Biden (37%) dominated the field, followed by Michelle Obama at 10% and Sanders, Harris, AOC, Hillary, and Newsom all ahead of Kennedy.
What all this tells us is that Kennedy isn't an especially intriguing candidate to Democratic voters - in a big field, he'd be trailing badly. Right now, he's losing in hypothetical matchups with people who aren't even campaigning.
And here's additional evidence: In mid-June, HarrisX polled not only the actual Democratic field (the result was Biden 54%, Kennedy 14%, Williamson 5%), but also, for some reason, a two-person field without Biden. (Needless to say, if Biden suddenly drops out, there'll be a lot more than two candidates in the race.) In this survey, the numbers seem pretty good for Kennedy: He's at 34% and Williamson is at 14%. But think about what that means: If you give Democratic voters just these two choices, more than half will say "none of the above." That's not a sign that Kennedy's message is catching fire with ordinary Democrats.
(If I were offered that choice by a pollster, I'd pick Williamson without hesitation. I have very little respect for self-help gurus or New Age spiritualism, but I've at least heard Williamson say some level-headed (and fairly progressive) things, whereas every word out of Kennedy's mouth is a Republican talking point, a conspiracy theory, or both.)
Oh, and that 21% poll? Emerson polled the race again this month and Kennedy was at 15%, down 5 points. Biden was at 73%, up 3. So those early numbers might be the best numbers he posts.
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