WAIT -- IS JOE MANCHIN PLANNING TO RUN AGAINST THE PRESIDENT AS A DEMOCRAT?

I'm confused by this story from Axios's Hans Nichols:

Scoop: Manchin flirts with Iowa voters

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) may not have announced that he's running as a third-party candidate for president. But he's acting like it.

... Manchin took time from his busy Senate schedule to tell a gathering of Iowa business and community leaders Wednesday in D.C. that he’s "fiscally responsible and socially compassionate" — another hint that he’s considering a potential third-party presidential bid.

... Manchin, perhaps his party's most endangered incumbent, didn’t explicitly tell the assembled Iowans he was leaving his party and running for president as an independent.

The group No Labels is raising money to build a presidential launchpad for a bipartisan ticket, with plans for their own nominating convention in Dallas in April 2024 and a strategy to get onto the ballot in all 50 states.

... No Labels has a close relationship with Manchin and frequently invites him onto their conference calls with donors to expound on the issues of the day. Last week, he sounded like a candidate on a No Labels call, according to Puck News, which obtained a recording of the conversation.

Manchin did not rule out joining a No Labels ticket on "Meet the Press" last month....

You know what has me confused about this? Iowa. I'm sure Manchin, who's being courted by No Labels and who has quite an exalted opinion of himself, is considering a presidential run. But what does being the No Labels candidate have to do with Iowa? As far as I know, No Labels isn't planning to conduct primaries or caucuses. Iowa is only relevant to a presidential campaign if you're running as a major-party candidate.

Right?

What am I missing? Did Manchin go to Iowa because Beltway reporters have a Pavlovian response to any politician visiting Iowa a year and a half before a presidential election, even if the pol isn't considering a major-party candidacy? (If so, I guess it worked -- Hans Nichols and his Axios editors drooled when Manchin rang the bell.) Or has Manchin concluded that if he runs on the No Labels ticket he probably won't win a single state, just like every other minor-party challenger in the past thirteen elections, but President Biden might be weak enough to be toppled in the primaries, or could at least be hobbled further, which will make it easier for Manchin's fat-cat fossil-fuel buddies to get four more years of the renewable-hating Donald Trump?

I can't tell. Maybe Manchin is just weighing a lot of options. But if his plan is to run on the No Labels ballot line, Iowa makes no sense.