Tuesday, May 23, 2023

NOT CONTENT WITH SCREWING UP THE BATTLE TO BEAT TRUMP, THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT IS NOW SCREWING UP THE BATTLE TO BEAT DeSANTIS

I often question the conventional wisdom in politics, but I agree with this standard take on the 2024 GOP primaries: A large field works to Donald Trump's advantage. Trump probably can't be beaten, but the only way it could possibly happen is if anti-Trump Republicans rally around one alternate candidate.

The preferred alternate used to be Ron DeSantis, but insiders and donors no longer believe that he can win a general election because of his extreme position on abortion and his repellent personality. Rich donors also seems to be concerned that DeSantis could subject them to the kind of jihadist war he's waging against Disney.

So what are the insiders doing? They're now making the same mistake with regard to DeSantis that they've already made in their attempt to beat Trump. They're welcoming too many candidates into the race - not just Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Asa Hutchinson, as well as (probably) Mike Pence and Chris Christie and Chris Sununu, but possibly this guy:
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is reconsidering a bid for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, after earlier taking himself out of the race as polls made former President Trump look increasingly formidable, top Republican sources tell Axios....

What we’re hearing: Some powerful GOP donors, who won't support Trump but are beginning to be concerned about DeSantis, are encouraging Youngkin to jump into the 2024 field.

"He's reconsidering," a top source close to Youngkin told Axios. "He'd be in his own lane: He's not never-Trump, and he's not Trump-light."
How is that Youngkin's "own lane"? Isn't it exactly the same lane Haley and Scott are in?

Look, I understand the plutocrats' frustration with DeSantis -- he doesn't seem to have what it takes to beat Trump and he'd be an offputting general election candidate. But in a country where J.D. Vance won a Senate race, Kari Lake nearly won a governor's race, and Herschel Walker forced a runoff against a likable incumbent, what does "offputting" even mean? (In the Real Clear Politics average, DeSantis is tied with Biden while Trump leads Biden by 1.7, so I'm not sure why either of them is considered unelectable.)

I assume that the insiders have read the eighty thousand pundit columns suggesting that DeSantis might be the 2024 equivalent of Scott Walker, who was the Great Right-Wing Hope as governor but didn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses in 2016. They think DeSantis could fade soon, leaving a wide-open contest for top Trump alternative.

But here's the difference: DeSantis is consistently a strong #2 in the polls, well ahead of every candidate except Trump. In 2016, Walker sunk to single digits shortly after Trump entered the race (see the chart here). In surveys that don't include Trump, DeSantis consistently polls in the 40s, and everyone else is in the single digits or teens. If Trump were to die or drop out of the race, DeSantis would become a Trump-like favorite. The only way the Establishment could possibly beat him would be to put all its money and resources behind one DeSantis alternative.

The Establishment wants to find a unicorn: someone genial enough to win swing voters in the general election and appealing enough to win over base voters in the primaries. But approximately 80% of the base will vote only for candidates who channel their rage. If Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mike Flynn, or Tucker Carlson were to enter the race, there might be a shakeup at the top. But that won't happen.

By encouraging so many sure losers to run, the GOP Establishment is simply creating a scramble for third place. No one's going to catch the top two, and every new campaign announcement makes Trump and DeSantis more likely to dominate the primaries.

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