Monday, February 27, 2023

LET'S PORTRAY OUR INCUMBENTS AS WEAK -- FOR THE GOOD OF THE PARTY!

In The Atlantic, Mark Leibovich, a liberal-ish journalist, runs through the recent history of embattled presidents who faced popular primary challengers, and notes that it hasn't led either to a change of nominee or a win by the incumbent party:
There is good reason no incumbent has been subjected to a serious intraparty challenge in more than three decades—not since the Republican Pat Buchanan launched a populist incursion against President George H. W. Bush in 1992. A dozen years earlier, President Jimmy Carter had endured an acrid primary challenge from Senator Edward Kennedy. Both Carter and Bush managed to hold off their challengers, but they came away battered and wound up losing their general elections.
Leibovich could have added the Gerald Ford-Ronald Reagan contest in 1976 to this list -- another challenge to an incumbent that ended in failure for the party in the White House.

But Leibovich wants Joe Biden to be challenged anyway:
If approached deftly, the gambit could benefit the president, the party, and even the challenger’s own standing, win or lose.
Leibovich can't cite any solid reasons for believing that this could work out well for Democrats, though he sure has a lot of evidence-free hope:
When the voting starts, maybe this upstart would overperform—grabbing 35 percent or so in the early states, say. Maybe they wouldn’t surpass Biden, but could still reap the good coverage, gracefully drop out, and gain an immediate advantage for 2028. Or maybe Biden would take the hint, step away on his own, and let Democrats get on with picking their next class of national leaders.
That's the best Leibovich can do: Maybe this would all work out fine.

I agree that Biden isn't an ideal choice for 2024. The best thing for Democrats might be to nominate a fresh candidate who could win broad nationwide support. Too bad Democrats invariably allow right-wing propagandists to pre-smear every prominent candidate on their "bench" before any of them can make a serious run for higher office (while in many cases doing some of the smearing themselves).

In The New York Times, Greg Craig, who was a White House counsel to President Obama, declares that he's appalled at the calls for a fresh presidential candidate:
Democratic voters should have more respect for Mr. Biden’s record as president and more confidence in the good judgment of the American people. His recent bravura performance at the State of the Union and his trip to Poland and Ukraine should compel even the most skeptical voters to admit that he is up to the job, at least at this moment. This month his doctor reported that Mr. Biden is “healthy,” “vigorous” and “fit” to carry out the duties of president.

His party should show a united front in support of his re-election.
Craig's message is: Don't throw Joe Biden under the bus! But also: Throw Kamala Harris under the bus!
But even as we put our faith in Mr. Biden, the questions about his age and physical condition will not go away, and it’s fair for voters to want reassurances and decisions that show the White House will be in solid hands....

When considering who should be his running mate in 2024, Mr. Biden would do well to follow what Franklin D. Roosevelt did in 1944: He expressed a preference for certain candidates but turned the choice of his running mate over to the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Craig proposes that Biden's running mate should be chosen by primary voters. But that would weaken Harris the way challenges to Presidents Bush, Carter, and Ford weakened them. And like them, she'd probably win the nomination -- she invariably leads polls of the 2024 Democratic presidential field that exclude Biden.

But if she remains on the ticket this way, she'll be damaged goods. And if she loses, especially to someone like Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer, many Democratic voters will feel that a Black woman was treated with great disrespect.

The only way Biden or Harris can be left off the 2024 ticket without weakening the party is a voluntary decision not to run. Well-meaning commentators who propose challenges to the president and vice president are just making the GOP's job easier.

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