Saturday, June 18, 2022


The Washington Post asked twelve of its pundits to speculate on whether Donald Trump will run for president again. Sensibly, most said yes. But Greg Sargent thinks Trump won't run:
What Trump’s embrace of the “big lie” shows above all else is how much he hates to lose. Trump not only knows he lost in 2020; he also knows he won in 2016 only because of a string of flukes — he faced an unexpectedly weak candidate after their party had held the White House for two terms. Risking a second loss to Biden is unthinkable: It would confirm his decisive rejection by the public. And Trump would be even less likely to defeat a fresh face should Biden decline to run. He knows that, too.
Does Trump really hate to lose? What he seems to hate is being perceived as a loser. If he can gull the public into believing that he's a winner, then he tolerates losing reasonably well. Recall that when he was nearly a billion dollars in debt in the early 1990s, he kept his name and face in the tabloids and wrote a book called Trump: Surviving at the Top, followed a few years later by Trump: The Art of the Comeback.

Trump told his followers that he would have won the popular vote in 2016 if Democrats hadn't cheated, and they believed him. He told them he actually won the 2020 election, and some of them literally died for that belief, while others were ready to kill politicians who wouldn't install him as president. He seems fine with that outcome.

His base believes he can't lose to Biden a second time because he didn't lose the first time. And they believe he can't really lose the 2024 vote -- he can only lose the fake vote that results from Democratic cheating.

Also, why do you think so many stop-the-steal crazies being chosen in Republican primaries? I mean, sure, if Nikki Haley were somehow able to win the presidential nomination in 2024 and she needed some state election results nullified in the general election, I guess these folks would help her out. But the person they really want to do this for is Trump.

It's almost certain that if Trump runs and loses, he'll come close enough to persuade his base that he was cheated, and he'll be the beneficiary of a strenuous effort to pilfer the election. His people will absolutely believe he won. That's all he needs to feel like a winner.

Also: If he doesn't run, how can he fundraise?

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