Thursday, September 10, 2020


Monmouth University released a good poll for Joe Biden today:
Biden is currently supported by 51% of registered voters and Trump by 42%.... This is similar to the Democrat’s pre-convention lead of 51% to 41% last month. The poll also includes Monmouth’s first national likely voter model of the cycle, which has Biden ahead by 7 points at 51% to 44%....

Biden continues to have more firm support – 43% of all registered voters and 45% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for him – than Trump does. Certain support for the incumbent comes from 37% of registered voters and 41% of likely voters. About half of the electorate (50% registered and 49% likely) continues to say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent, while about 4 in 10 (40% registered and 42% likely) say the same for the challenger.
And yet:
... more registered voters think Trump (48%) will win the election rather than Biden (43%) despite Biden’s consistent lead in the polls. Among firm Trump supporters, 92% expect their candidate to win and just 2% feel he will lose. Among firm Biden supporters, 80% expect the Democrat to win and 12% think he will lose. Among all other voters, including soft supporters and undecided voters, 43% believe Trump will win and 39% believe Biden will win.
One reason:
The poll also finds that more voters think the Trump campaign will try to cheat if necessary to win in November – 38% say this is very likely and 14% somewhat likely – than say the same about the Biden campaign – 25% very likely and 14% somewhat likely.
We're told,
As may be expected, nearly all firm Biden supporters expect Trump to cheat (91%) and very few say the same about their own candidate (8%). The same dynamic is true for firm Trump supporters, but not quite as widespread when it comes to cheating by the challenger – 78% say it is likely the Biden campaign will cheat and 8% say the same for Trump. Among voters who are undecided or not firmly committed to either candidate, 53% feel it is likely the Trump campaign will cheat compared with 30% who say the Biden campaign will cheat.
"As may be expected"? Did we always expect candidates to cheat in presidential elections? Did a majority of us always expect the incumbent to cheat? I don't want to sound like a cranky old man, but isn't this a relatively recent development?

I suppose Republicans have believed that Democrats cheat in every election since the Bush-era GOP began talking about a nonexistent epidemic of voter fraud. But now a majority of the country thinks the incumbent will cheat and a plurality thinks he'll win -- many of them, presumably, as a result of the cheating -- even though half the country vows not to vote for him.

That's the state of democracy in America today.

No comments: