Friday, July 03, 2020


Wouldn't it be nice?
MSNBC’s Donny Deutsch predicts Trump will drop out in the face of ‘the biggest landslide defeat in US history’

Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” regular contributor Donny Deutsch said he would not be surprised at all if Donald Trump dropped out of the 2020 presidential race because he wouldn’t be able to face losing to former Vice President Joe Biden in a landslide....

“I would not be shocked at some point if he doesn’t drop the mic,” Deutsch admitted. “It’s [the election] is not turning around. This is a guy that I cannot see standing up and owning the biggest landslide defeat in U.S. history. I know you have been throwing it out in, a lot of people are saying no, that’s not possible. But the more I think about it, the more I’m jumping on your bandwagon. I don’t see this guy going the distance.”
No, this won't happen.

Trump will go all the way to November insisting (to himself and to others) that the polls are wrong and he's secretly winning. Axios's Jonathan Swan recently reported,
"[Trump] truly believes there is a silent majority out there that's going to come out in droves in November," said a source who's talked to the president in recent days.
He thinks he can still win when every poll and pundit says he'll lose, just the way he did last time. (And who knows? He might.)

But if he doesn't win? Won't that be an unbearable humiliation?

No, because he'll never concede that he lost fair and square. He still won't admit that he lost the popular vote in 2016, even though he fell millions of votes short -- why would he admit that even a blowout win by Biden was on the up-and-up? The Fake News and the Deep State are so vicious! If the Fake News would just report how great Trump is, he'd win in a landslide, but that doesn't happen! And everyone know the Deep State is out to get Trump -- look at the phony Russia hoax, and Ukraine, and Afghanistan! Vicious liars making up phony stories! And China with the virus! It's all very unfair!

Trump might even agree to leave offfice with minimal fuss. But he'll never admit that he lost a fair election. And his hardcore fan base will all agree with him.

So if he loses, he'll do it with his head held high -- not because he's suddenly become a graceful loser, but because he'll insist to the end that he really won, or should have.


Also, can we please stop imagining that Trump could experience "the biggest landslide defeat in U.S. history"? It's not going to happen.

FIrst of all, the race will tighten -- soon, I believe. It may not tighten much, and Trump may continue to say and do things that alienate voters, but much of the heartland white electorate would like to vote GOP, as usual. They want to come home to the party. Many will do so. They're just looking for any sign, however fleeting or false, that Trump is an acceptable candidate. Frankly, I think if he started wearing a mask, he'd pull within the margin of error in every poll. I know he won't do that. But recent statements in which he kinda-sorta endorsed mask-wearing (though still not for himself) will probably give him a slight poll bump.

But the real reason Trump can't suffer the all-time worst defeat is the size of some of our other blowouts.

In 1932, FDR beat Herbert Hoover by more than 17 points, and won 42 of 48 states; four years later, he beat Alf Landon by 24 points, and won 46 states out of 48.

In 1964, LBJ beat Barry Goldwater by 22 points and won all but 6 states. Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 lost one state each. Reagan's popular-vote margin was 18; Nixon's was 23.

Since then, every popular vote margin has been in the single digits. Given the partisan skew of America, that's likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. (And please keep in mind that Trump's job approval rating hasn't sunk below 40 since early 2019, even in this period of apparent freefall; the last time it was below 39 was in January of 2018.)

In 2016, Trump won eleven states by 25 points or more: Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Idaho, Kentucky, South Dakota, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Nebraska. Do you think he could lose any of these states? I don't think any Republican could.

I predict Trump will lose -- but Biden's margin of victory will probably be normal by the standards of the past three decades. There certainly won't be an FDR/LBJ/Nixon/Reagan blowout.

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