Thursday, July 02, 2020


A lot of people who want Joe Biden to defeat Donald Trump in November worry that this is true:
Pushing back against public opinion polls that indicate President Trump’s trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale argues that the president “is dominating” the former vice president “when it comes to the most important factor, enthusiasm.”

“The unprecedented enthusiasm behind the president’s reelection efforts stands in stark contrast to the flat, almost nonexistent enthusiasm for Biden,” Parscale said Thursday in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.
That's certainly how it appears in polls such as the most recent Fox News survey, in which Biden is leading by 12 but Trump voters express far more enthusiasm about their candidate.

But a new Monmouth University poll -- in which Biden is also leading by 12 -- measures enthusiasm differently:

Democrats' motivation to vote is extremely high: 90% are "very motivated" to cast a ballot in the presidential election, approximately the same as Republicans' level of high motivation, 91%. And 92% of Democrats plan to vote for Biden, while 87% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump.

We've been assuming that Democrats may not be highly motivated to vote for Biden, but they are highly motivated to vote against Trump. The motivation numbers in this poll confirm that belief. So do other numbers: Among Democrats, 90% say they're "certain to vote" in the presidential election, compared to 88% of Republicans. Also, 47% of Democrats say they're "more enthusiastic" about voting in this election than in past elections, while only 41% of Republicans say this.

So we have plenty of enthusiasm, Brad, because we despise your candidate.

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