Thursday, December 19, 2019


The impeachment numbers in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that was released yesterday aren't unusual:
Forty-eight percent of Americans believe that Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while an equal 48 percent say they disagree.
And Trump's job approval rating is roughly on par with his numbers in other polls:
... 44 percent of all respondents in the poll say they approve of Trump's job performance, including 33 percent who strongly approve.

But that's compared with 54 percent who disapprove, including 44 percent who do so strongly.
But here's a number that's really bad for the president:
Looking ahead to next year's general election, a plurality of registered voters — 48 percent — say they are certain to vote against Trump, while 34 percent say they are certain to vote for him.

Eighteen percent of voters say their choice will depend upon whom Democrats nominate.
If a poll showed that 48% of voters were certain to vote against the reelection of President Hillary Clinton on the day she was being impeached, and that only 34% were certain to vote for her, much of her party and nearly all of the media would be arguing that she shouldn't run at all.

Zandar responds:
48% definitely voting against him, and hours away from being impeached.

The problem is 54% of America actually voted against Trump in 2016.
That's true. But if the Democratic nominee gets half of the undecided voters, then 57% of the electorate will be voting against Trump. I don't think anything can save him then.

Trump is in much worse shape than the last incumbent seeking reelection:
Those numbers ... are worse for Trump than what the December 2011 NBC/WSJ poll showed for Barack Obama and his re-election prospects heading into the 2012 presidential contest.

In that poll, 34 percent of voters said they were certain to back Obama's re-election, 37 percent said they were certain to oppose him, and 27 percent said it depended on the Republican nominee.
Obama went on to win the 2012 election, 51%-47%. That means he got 17% of the undecideds, while Mitt Romney got 10%. In other words, he got just under two-thirds.

If Trump gets two-thirds of this year's undecideds, he'll be -- yes -- at 46% again. But he'll need another Rust Belt inside straight and some serious help from third-party candidates, plus a Democratic nominee who inspires the same level of hatred as Hillary (inexplicably) does. So far, none of the Democratic contenders fit the bill. Also, Obama was nearly at 50% among voters who'd made up their minds, while Trump is far below that.

And there's this:
The new NBC/WSJ survey also shows that 50 percent of voters say they are "very uncomfortable" with Trump when it comes to the 2020 election.

That's compared with 28 percent who say they are "enthusiastic" about the president, as well as 12 percent who are "comfortable" with him.
That can't be good for Trump.

... the poll finds Democrats enjoying a 7-point lead over Republicans in congressional preference, with 49 percent of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress after next year's elections, compared to 42 percent who want Republicans in charge.

That 7-point edge for Democrats — which is within the margin of error for registered voters — is identical to their advantage in October's NBC/WSJ poll, as well as right before the 2018 midterms, when they won control of the House.
So much for Democrats sealing their doom by pursuing impeachment.

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