Tuesday, November 06, 2018


Because I remember late-afternoon exit polls telling us in 2004 that John Kerry had the race won, I don't want to put too much stake in what we're hearing today before the polls have closed. However, this is striking:
A big majority of voters, about two-thirds, made their 2018 election decision before the last month, according to preliminary exit poll results. Only one-in-five said they decided in the last month and even fewer said they made up their minds in the last few days or last week.
So all that agitation about the caravan -- was it for nothing? Was Trump's endless series of campaign rallies meaningless? The Kavanaugh hearings ended about a month ago -- did they even matter?

It's not clear how the few people who decided in the last month voted. It's not clear how many people weren't sure they wanted to vote at all and then decided in the last month. If Republican voters are disproportionately represented in the latter two categories, then maybe all the noise made by Republicans paid off.

But if not, it's possible that the press treated Kavanaugh and the caravan and "Democrat mob" talk as game-changers when they didn't mean much of anything at all.

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