Friday, November 03, 2017


On Wednesday, a couple of days after we learned about the first Robert Mueller indictments, Vanity Fair's Gabriel Sherman published a piece about Trump World that contained this memorable quote:
“Here’s what Manafort’s indictment tells me: Mueller is going to go over every financial dealing of Jared Kushner and the Trump Organization,” said former Trump campaign aide Sam Nunberg. “Trump is at 33 percent in Gallup. You can’t go any lower. He’s fucked.”
When Nunberg said "You can't go any lower," I think he meant that Trump's approval ratings are so abysmal there'll be no one left to catch him when his inevitable downfall occurs -- which would imply that Trump can go even lower in the polls. But as it turns out, what Nunberg said appears to be literally true -- Trump seems to have bottomed out in the Gallup tracking poll and is now staging a mini-comeback. Look at what happens at the right edge of this chart:

The good folks at Polling Report have the numbers in table form:

In the three-day rolling survey conducted on and after October 30 -- Indictment Day -- Trump's approval went up three points and his disapproval went down three. In the next survey, his approval went up another point and his disapproval went down a point.

My conclusion: Disillusioned deplorables see the guy they voted for under attack and are rallying to his side.

Obviously, they're still not a majority. But I'm calling it now: If Trump is impeached, if anyone in his current inner circle is indicted, or if collusion is demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt, his poll numbers are going to go up -- they may remain low, but he'll never reach Nixon's 24%, never mind Chris Christie's 15%. Too many angry heartlanders have too much emotionally invested in him, or at least in their idea of him.

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