Tuesday, August 08, 2017


Trump's base is losing some faith in him:
A new poll shows Donald Trump’s support dropping among his strongest supporters as he hits the 200-day mark of his presidency.

In a fresh survey from CNN, conducted by the independent research company SSRS, Trump’s “strong approval” among Republicans has dropped from 73 percent in February, shortly after he took office, to 59 percent now.
Overall, 83 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s performance, with 14 percent disapproving.
So he still has fairly solid support from Republicans. But the dropoff in strong support is significant.

Overall, his numbers in the poll are bad, though he's not the only president to be underwater at this point in his presidency:
Overall, 38% say they approve of Trump's handling of the presidency ... with 56% saying they disapprove. Just one other newly-elected president has held an approval rating below 50% at this point in his presidency since modern polling began: Bill Clinton, whose approval rating stood at 44% at this point in 1993.
Clinton won reelection in 1996 and became a very popular president, so it's theoretically possible for Trump to reverse his slide. But Trump is Trump. It's very hard to imagine Trump correcting his errors as president.

Already we haves a poll suggesting that Trump could lose a GOP primary in 2020, from American Research Group:

A couple of caveats: ARG isn't the most accurate pollster (its FiveThirtyEight rating is C+). And this is New Hampshire, where candidates who position themselves as moderates tend to do well.

But at this point, I'd like to see a poll of Super Tuesday states, and of challengers other than Kasich. (I don't think Kasich would do well in the Deep South against Trump, but would, say, Tom Cotton do better?) Yes, it's early for all this, but it would be a way of assessing how much Trump is slipping with his base.

If Trump is toppled in the 2020 primaries, it will probably be by someone the voters believe will kick liberal asses the way Trump promised to do. I don't think it'll be by someone who talks the way Kasich talks these days. But we'll see.

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