NO, WE'RE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAVE A RUSSIA-LEAKED TRUMP SEX SCANDAL

During our presidential campaign, the Russians leaked information damaging to Democrats, but held on to what they had on Republicans, according to Michael Weiss and Kimberly Dozier of the Daily Beast:

A senior U.S. administration official confirmed to The Daily Beast that the CIA believes the Russians hacked the RNC. He spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

{Friday] night, The New York Times reported that hackers connected to two separate Russian security services allegedly broke into the computer systems of the RNC, but chose not to disclose the digital contents of those systems, in marked contrast to the gradual release, via WikiLeaks, of emails belonging to the Democratic National Committee throughout the spring and summer.

Back in October, David Corn of Mother Jones reported,

... a former senior intelligence officer for a Western country who specialized in Russian counterintelligence tells Mother Jones that in recent months he provided the bureau with memos, based on his recent interactions with Russian sources, contending the Russian government has for years tried to co-opt and assist Trump....

Mother Jones has reviewed that report and other memos this former spy wrote. The first memo, based on the former intelligence officer's conversations with Russian sources, noted, "Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance."

And:

It claimed that Russian intelligence had "compromised" Trump during his visits to Moscow and could "blackmail him."

Which prompted this response:

The Kremlin having kompromat on Trump would explain so very much: https://t.co/0mgB2xa6OC pic.twitter.com/CuUsG6ofQC

— Casey Michel (@cjcmichel) November 1, 2016

And then this one from a journalist who's written about Russia:

In intel circles, the story goes FSB filmed Trump in an orgy while in Russia. Yes,this all ends in a Trump sex tape. https://t.co/h5EXta5tRe

— Andrea Chalupa (@AndreaChalupa) November 1, 2016

Here's my reaction to that at the time, which I wouldn't change:

A plain-vanilla hetero orgy wouldn't shame Trump. Would have to involve gay male sex, violence, or underage participants. @AndreaChalupa

— Steve M. (@nomoremister) November 1, 2016

After the Access Hollywood tape, I think we've established that Trump's Teflon extends to pretty much anything in the realm of sex. Perhaps he'd be damaged by evidence of pedophilia or out-and-out brutality, and a homosexual act would probably appall at least some of the faithful. But I think even in those categories we'd be told -- not just by his fan base but by top Republicans -- that any video evidence was doctored. He'd probably skate. When doesn't he?

(And given the Russians' predilection for generating fake evidence of pedophilia and other offenses, skepticism might be warranted.)

If there's leverage over Trump, it's financial. It would involve the money itself, not revelations about the money -- in a post-fact era, Trumpers aren't going to believe anything they don't want to believe. (The Russians might leak enough embarrassing financial information to allow journalists to fill in some blanks, but the fans won't believe those journalists, either.)

I don't think blackmail is how the Trump era will end. Trump will continue to do what the Russians want. And the rest of the GOP, maybe with a handful of exceptions (McCain, Graham), doesn't want to do anything that might slow the arrival of those sweet, sweet tax cuts. So the majority of the party will agree to leave the Russians alone, and the blackmail threat will remain just that -- a threat.