Remember this, from last January?

Backers of Gay Marriage Ban Use Social Security as Cudgel

A coalition of major conservative Christian groups is threatening to withhold support for President Bush's plans to remake Social Security unless Mr. Bush vigorously champions a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage....

Mr. Tough Guy did exactly what they wanted -- he included a demand for a gay marriage amendment in the State of the Union address -- and then religious-right groups lavished praise on his plans for Social Security.

Only days, later, [James] Dobson's Citizenlink included a special Web page devoted to promoting Bush's plans "to fix Social Security."

...And in early February, the Southern Baptist Convention's news service, BP News, published a three-part series pumping Bush’s call for partial privatization of the Social Security System.

Douglas Barker, a Baptist pastor in Alexandria, Va., writing the series for BP News, argued that Social Security had weakened or undermined churches' roles in helping the poor and elderly...

It's because of moments like that that I really don't think Bush will pick Gonzales. In fact, let me quote the passage from today's New York Times that everyone else in Blogistan is quoting:

The White House and the Senate Republican leadership are pushing back against pressure from some of their conservative allies about the coming Supreme Court nomination, urging them to stop attacking Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales as a potential nominee and to tone down their talk of a culture war.

In a series of conference calls on Tuesday and over the last several days, Republican Senate aides encouraged conservative groups to avoid emphasizing the searing cultural issues that social conservatives see at the heart of the court fight, subjects like abortion, public support for religion and same-sex marriage, participants said.

Instead, these participants, who insisted on anonymity to avoid exclusion from future calls, said the aides - including Barbara Ledeen of the Senate Republican Conference and Eric Ueland, chief of staff to Senator Bill Frist, the majority leader - emphasized themes that had been tested in polls, including a need for a fair and dignified confirmation process....

To me, it sounds as if they're preparing the ground for a nominee the religious right does like, not the opposite. It sounds as if Bush is going to nominate a justice who stands shoulder to shoulder with the religious crazies -- therefore, it's important to change the subject and talk about "fairness" in the confirmation process.

Yeah, Bush is denouncing attacks on Gonzales. Well, he has to, doesn't he? He has to at least look as if he doesn't take any guff from these people, so he won't look like a poodle a few weeks from now, when he does exactly what they want.