I'd love to believe all the predictions of a decisive Clinton victory. It's encouraging to me that FiveThirtyEight finally has Clinton as more than a 70% favorite. It's encouraging that an old-school political nerd, Larry Sabato, is predicting a 322-216 Electoral College victory for Clinton. It's encouraging that the betting markets have Clinton as an overwhelming favorite. It's a relief that the Philadelphia transit trike is over, so no one in that city will be discouraged from voting by transit troubles.
But I'm concerned about weak early voting numbers for Democrats in North Carolina. I'm concerned about Republicans leading in early voting in Colorado. I'm concerned about the fact that so many people consider Michigan a toss-up state. I'm concerned about the fact that Clinton won't get the vote of one or possibly two Democratic Electoral College electors in Washington State, which would require Clinton to win 272 electoral votes, not 270.
Now look at the Real Clear Politics Electoral College map with all tossups resolved in favor of the state poll leaders:
Yup -- Clinton's at 272.
I have serious doubts about that map. I trust Jon Ralston, Nevada's most trusted political reporter, when he says that early voting results prove that Trump is dead in gthe state. I think Clinton's chances in Florida are pretty good. I think she could win Ohio.
But there's so much that's still unknown. And I'm wondering whether everyone's ideas about turnout are just a bit off. I voted this morning on the Upper West Side of Manhattan and the lines were the longest I've ever seen, even though this is one of the safest blue states. On the radio there are anecdotal reports of long lines in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and much shorter lines on Staten Island -- which is less well off than Manhattan the way it's always been, but is also less white than it used to be.
I'm wondering whether college-educated voters are going to turn out in larger numbers than less-educated voters of all races. I know that there are a lot of non-college whites who love Trump, but I bet there are a lot of voters in that group who think both candidates are awful. And I worry about non-white blue-collar voters in areas where there isn't an excellent turnout machine the way there is in Nevada.
But I have no idea.
My sense of this election is that no one is going to win 300 electoral votes -- and I think Nate Silver wasn't crazy to express concern about a Trump Electoral College victory despite a Clinton popular-vote win, because Clinton's voters are concentrated in big states with big cities, and Trump's are scattered throughout the country. She'll win California and New York by huge margins. He could win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and maybe Michigan and Pennsylvania by 1 or 2 points.
It ain't over till it's over. Vote.