Monday, October 05, 2026

ALITO'S KAVANAUGH ASSASSINATION CONSPIRACY THEORY HAS NEVER MADE SENSE

In a softball interview with CBS's Jan Crawford, Samuel Alito once again flogs his favorite conspiracy theory: that the leaker of the Court's Dobbs decision knew the leak would lead to a Supreme Court assassination attempt.
"It was quite a shock," Alito said. "But within a relatively short period of time, the thought occurred to me, and I think to the others in the majority, that this would endanger us. And it made us targets for assassination."

Security, Alito said, ramped up immediately. A month later, in June of 2022, the world would know why. In the middle of the night, as Justice Brett Kavanaugh and his family slept in their Maryland home, a would-be assassin approached their backyard with a bag containing a gun and rounds of ammunition, a knife and nail punch, duct tape, zip ties, a crowbar and other burglary tools, including special shoes to silence his footsteps.

He was intent on killing justices before the Court released its Dobbs decision. With its narrow 5-4 majority, it would only take one justice. He said on private messaging boards he aimed to kill at least three of the conservatives and, as prosecutors later put it, "single-handedly and irrevocably to alter an entire branch of the United States government."

At the last minute, the man spoke to his sister on his cell phone, and she managed to talk him out of it. He was arrested and later convicted for the attempted assassination of Kavanaugh.

"His goal was to change the decision in the case. So that was quite predictable," Alito said. "And whoever leaked it knew or had good reason to know that that would be the consequence of leaking it. And Politico knew, or should've known, that that would be the consequence of their decision to publish it."
This isn't the first time Alito has said this. He made the same argument in October 2022, a few months after the assassination attempt.
The leak to Politico ahead of the decision confirming that opinion overruling Roe v Wade "gave people a rational reason to think they could prevent that from happening by killing one of us," Alito said in a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C.
He made the argument again six months later in a Wall Street Journal interview.
“Those of us who were thought to be in the majority, thought to have approved my draft opinion, were really targets of assassination,” Alito told the Wall Street Journal in an interview....

“It was rational for people to believe they might be able to stop the decision in Dobbs by killing one of us.”
Except that the would-be assassin, then known as Nicholas Roske (and now known as Sophie Roske), didn't know it would be a 5-4 ruling. At the time of the leak, Politico reported that five right-wing justices were on board and three liberal justices were dissenting, but
How Chief Justice John Roberts will ultimately vote, and whether he will join an already written opinion or draft his own, is unclear.
It was also reported at the time that this wasn't Roske's sole motivation:
Roske told a Montgomery County Police detective "that he was upset about the leak of a recent Supreme Court draft decision regarding the right to abortion as well as the recent school shooting in Uvalde, Texas," the court documents say.

The court papers add, "Roske indicated that he believed the Justice that he intended to kill would side with Second Amendment decisions that would loosen gun control laws."
No gun decision had been leaked at the time of Roske's assassination plot.

Please note that Alito hasn't argued that the leaker and the would-be assassin knew each other. In fact, he's implicitly arguing the opposite, because if they'd known each other, the leaker could have given the leaked decision to the would-be assassin privately -- it didn't need to be published. What Alito is arguing is that the leaker's thought process was this: I'll make this draft decision public, secure in the knowledge that someone out there will read it and think, "Okay, that's it, I'm going to start killing Supreme Court justices."

That's quite a leap of faith.

It also supposes that would-be assassins are motivated only by the perceived opportunity to change a specific government course of action and never by anger at a specific past act or series of acts. If you believe Alto's conspiracy theory, an assassination attempt was much more likely to happen happen when the Dobbs decision was pending than when it was on the books -- no one would be murderously angry at that point!

And this isn't how anything works. Powerful government officials will inevitably anger their critics. Some of those critics, inevitably, will want to react to what angers them with violence. In a society with free speech, that's not a justification for withholding important information from the public, although Alito -- whose job it is to defend the First Amendment -- may believe it is. The government (sometimes augmented by private security services) should protect public officials from violence. That's all a free society can do.

Sunday, October 04, 2026

ANGELA PAXTON ISN'T A CULTIST. SHE'S A NORMAL POLITICAL PARTISAN.

Angela Paxton, a Republican state senator in Texas, is divorcing the party's morally bankrupt U.S. Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, who cheated on her. Now she's made an ad on his behalf, although the ad doesn't include his name.


She's also talking to Republican groups and telling them they mustn't empower the Democratic Party:
Appearing at a Texas Federation of Republican Women meeting, Angela Paxton warned the group that when voting, they should consider that “the party comes with the person.”

“Because we have more control over that seat and the future when we control the seat, when it’s still in the family, even if we’re mad at it,” she said. “But if we lose it to the other team, the nuances that we want to fix with maybe a certain candidate are nothing compared to what it’s going to take to get it back, right?” ...

“They’re [Democratic candidates] not like a stand-alone thing, like a menu item. We have more control when it’s our party,” Paxton continued. “We have more ability than influence, and that person is attached to our party.”
People on social media are calling this cult behavior.

Can you believe this shit? It is truly a cult. www.yahoo.com/news/politic...

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— Susanne democratic socialist (@momoftwo.bsky.social) September 25, 2026 at 3:18 PM

www.cnn.com/2026/09/28/p... She is completely under the influence of a cult and she doesn’t even realize it. There is no MAGA “team” that will respect the rights of women. And the abuses she endured from Pox-ton? What kind of role model is this? 🤮🤮

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— The Word Bird (@thewordbird.bsky.social) September 29, 2026 at 10:33 AM

What she's doing seems extreme for a normal person, but it's a version of fairly common "good wife" behavior in politics. After a male politician is caught cheating, his wife, sadly, is expected to appear by his side in a show of support. It's a humiliation for her, but it's the norm.

Presumably, these wives, or at least most of them, prefer their husbands politically. Hillary Clinton shared Bill Clinton's politics and opposed the politics of Newt Gingrich. Angela Paxton supports the Republican Party. So she's backing Republican candidates.

This isn't cult behavior. It's partisan behavior. Republicans, with some exceptions (cough Trump cough), back Republicans. They believe it's always better to vote for a Republican than for a Democrat. They attack Democrats every chance they get. They close ranks around their own candidates.

That's normal -- but if you're a Democrat, it might seem odd. Democrats pursue endorsements from Republicans and boast about their bipartisanship. They attack other Democrats, even in the midst of campaigns. They proclaim that some Democrats are too far to the left or too far to the right. They A few even endorse Republicans -- here's Maine's Jared Golden endorsing a House Republican from New York, Mike Lawler, at a time when most of America is gearing up to vote against Republicans.

And what Democrats never seem to do is attack the Republican Party categorically. In a two-party system, you'd think this would be an obvious message: Our party is good, their party is bad. James Carville wrote a book years ago called We're Right, They're Wrong, but Democrats -- Carville in particular -- never seem to say that now.


In 2026, you'd think would be a simple message: A Republican president is destroying the country and Republicans at every level of government are either helping him do it or praising him for it. A vote for Republicans is a vote for more of the same.

Angela Paxton believes in her party and is unalterably opposed to the opposition party. Democrats should be the same way.

Saturday, October 03, 2026

REPUBLICANS ARE GEARING UP TO SAY THAT BAD NEWS COVERAGE OF TRUMP IS ELECTION INTERFERENCE

Donald Trump can't quite say this yet because he needs to put on a brave face and insist that Republicans will do well in the midterms, but if the November results are as bad for the GOP as most observers now expect, I expect him to argue that poor media coverage of his administration was illegal election interference. And he won't be alone.

Take a look at some of the whining he did in the Time interview that was published this week. Trump was asked,
Why should Americans believe that you respect the free press when you're restricting access to the White House to some of our colleagues?
The gist of his answer was this:
Because I do respect the free press, but I don't respect fake news.... I haven't had a good story on CNN for years. They're incapable of being—they're fake news. Same thing on MS NOW.

If I do the finest thing, if I found the cure to cancer, they would say, "Why didn't he move quicker?" They are just horrible people, and they're so bad.

... I don't think anybody should be forced to bear fake news, constantly bad stories, because I've done great things. I mean, I've done Venezuela. I've done—I can name, I can name 100 great things I've done. I never get good press. I never get fair press. Doesn’t have to be good. All it has to be is fair.
His questioners changed the subject to Iran, but Trump couldn't let go of the idea that the press is mistreating him:
Everything is obliterated. They don't have radar. They don't have any anti-aircraft capability. Nothing. I have The New York Times saying how well they're doing, and it's so crazy. Their whole military is gone. Their radar is gone. Their leaders are gone. You know, we went through two levels of leaders, and The New York Times keeps writing about how well they're doing. They have no money. They have no value of money. They have nothing going, and just fake news, fake news, and maybe they’ll be next.
"Maybe they'll be next" means that the Times might experience its own White House ban. That's hard to imagine given Trump's love-hate relationship with the paper, but it could happen.

Trump was asked about the midterms and his own polling. He lashed out:
Mr. President, your polls have never been lower.

They're fake numbers. I would beat anybody running today by 20 points. Your numbers that you have are fake. The pollsters are corrupt. They're almost as corrupt as the writers.
And at the end of what was mostly a deferential interview, he lashed out again:
You haven't asked me one fucking positive question. All of this. What about this? What about that? What about that? What about this? All negative.... I would say that I should be given credit for fixing the White House because I'm also doing very well with the war. I'm doing very well with another war that we already won, Venezuela.
Put it all together -- Trump crying about bad coverage, Trump insisting that pollsters are publishing dishonestly bad polls about him (why would they do that?) -- and I think it's quite possible that he'll argue that the press engaged in illegal election interference, just by not flattering him as much as Natalie Harp does.

Ohio senator Bernie Moreno seems ready to back Trump up if he makes that argument, HuffPost reports:
... Moreno [said] voters are mad about gas costs, not at the president, and blamed the media for making people even more mad at him.

“Number one, gas prices. And number two, a media that just does not let up,” said the Ohio Republican. “I watch CNN literally every morning ... every night. Can you say something positive or neutral? I mean, it’s like a constant barrage. So people absorb that, and then when they’re angry because of gas prices, those punches land.”
Trump might be too busy hunting for illegal votes to focus on the press after the midterms. He might be too fixated on mail ballots or slow vote counts to blame the press primarily. But he will blame the press sooner or later, and so will many Republicans. They love to complain that the press doesn't give them a fair shake. (Here's the Media Research Council in summer 2020 asserting that the three major television networks had broadcast "150 TIMES More Negative News on Trump than Biden.") Trump will probably try to weaponize this idea after Election Day. It won't surprise me if he files lawsuits, or orders his Justice Department to find criminal liability. If this happens, none of it will change the outcome, but it will please what's left of the GOP base, and it will be another assault on the First Amendment.

Friday, October 02, 2026

THE POST-TRUMP GOP WILL BE AN EVEN MORE RACIST PARTY, SANEWASHED BY THE "LIBERAL" MEDIA

This morning, Matthew Gertz of Media Matters posted this at Bluesky:

Here's what Tucker Carlson is up to when he talks to his own audience, instead of interviewers from NPR or NY Times: Explaining that white people are facing extinction and the ADL is trying to cover it up. He concludes, "Noticing is hate. Noticing is violence." www.mediamatters.org/tucker-carls...

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— Matthew Gertz (@mattgertz.bsky.social) October 2, 2026 at 8:32 AM

Gertz is right. Carlson talks like this all the time, but he was respectfully interviewed by Lulu Garcia-Navarro in The New York Times this past spring and by Steve Inskeep on NPR last week. My one quibble with Gertz's post is that Carlson didn't really conceal his bigotry in those interviews -- in the Times interview, as I noted at the time, he argued, essentially, that Benjamin Netantyahu brainwashed Trump into starting the war with Iran and manipulated him into going through with it, thus implying that Trump is effectively blameless because an evil Jew made him do it. He says similar things in the NPR interview. Of course, he swears that none of this is anti-Semitism.

Inskeep and Garcia-Navarro don't care very much. They let him say these things and then politely proceeded to other subjects. They did this because Carlson is an insider. He regularly talked to Trump! He's an influential voice on the right who could be a 2028 kingmaker, yet he knows how to have a polite chat with liberal-coded journalists.

So the Times and NPR sanewashed him.

One poster who responds to Gertz calls this "a kind of fascist glow up service." Another one says that "liberal" outlets publish this sort of thing out of a delusional sense of what's good for their audiences: "All for 'fairness' & to get readers like me out of the 'liberal bubble.'"

But Carlson isn't the only influential bigot on the right who gets far more respectable coverage from the "liberal" press than he deserves. There's also Chris Rufo. Christopher Mathias of Talking Points Memo reports:
To the degree that a “respectable” or “moderate” right exists today in America, Christopher Rufo is considered part of it. He is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, the tony midtown think tank that holds black-tie galas; he recently enjoyed a polite sit-down interview with Ezra Klein on Klein’s massively popular New York Times podcast....

This past weekend Rufo introduced an alarming new term that feels like an escalation, even for him: the “Indian Question” — that is, what to do about the very existence of Indian people, citizens and noncitizens alike, in America? Rufo’s new phrase formed the title of the latest episode of “Rufo & Lomez,” the BlazeTV podcast he co-hosts with Jonathan Keeperman, a lesser known and less “respectable” proprietor of white nationalist talking points....
Rufo and Keeperman discussed the tweet in which this year's Republican candidate for Texas railroad commissioner, Bo French, recoiled in horror at the sight of University of Texas football fans who were of South Asian descent. Mathias writes:
Keeperman and Rufo’s “Indian Question” episode amounts to an hour-long defense of French’s post....

“Successful assimilation is precisely that you wouldn’t notice it, we wouldn’t have anything to talk about,” [Keeperman] said. “The mere fact of us being able to notice that, no, this is not an assimilated group, this is just a bunch of Indians at the game, is itself sort of definitionally the case that they’re not yet assimilated.” ...

Rufo nods along with all of Keeperman’s arguments. When Keeperman expresses disgust for the phrase “diversity is our strength,” often used by liberals, Rufo excitedly agrees, saying it “sounds like a slogan from [George Orwell’s novel] ‘1984.’”
This makes me furious. Like me, Rufo is of Italian descent. I have immigrant grandparents from Sicily on my father's side and immigrant great-grandparents from the southern mainlaind on my mother's side. Rufo's father immigrated from Italy to America, and Rufo has said that he and his children have Italian citizenship and speak Italian at home. (I don't speak any Italian.)

Rufo and I are perceived as white in America now, but my ancestors, at least, weren't always accorded that privilege. Many people thought we didn't look the same and act the same as "real" Americans. This also true of Keeperman's ancestors -- he's Jewish.

But our skin is light enough and our facial features are European enough that we're all now regarded as white. We can assimilate and "you wouldn't notice it." You wouldn't notice that we're descended from foreigners who were darker-skinned and regarded with suspicion.

The South Asians who are being attacked by Rufo and Keeperman don't have that option. They can't disappear into whiteness, at least as it's currently conceived -- not the way Rufo, Keeperman, and I can.

So even though these kids were doing the most American thing imaginable -- excitedly watching a college football game (something I never did when I was an undergraduate) -- Rufo and Keeperman are holding them to an impossible assimilation standard. But Rufo and Keeperman don't want them to succeed, Mathias writes:
The pair’s “solution” to the “Indian question” is the forced deportation of Indian immigrants who aren’t assimilated, and a complete ban on all immigration. “That means cutting off the spigot right now, getting rid of anybody who’s only here temporarily, and encouraging — through remigration efforts — to compel people who don’t wanna go through that process of assimilation to go back to where they come from and let this thing cool off for a matter of perhaps decades,” Keeperman says....

For Indian-American citizens or other Desi people otherwise allowed to stay in America, Keeperman advocates them being “subjected” to an “assimilation hazing process” that will include instances of “vulgar, defamatory racism” until they have sufficiently left parts of their Indian “identity behind.”
Rufo is embracing this argument not just because he's a vile bigot, but because he has a keen eye for which culture-war attacks will keep the rubes angry and willing to vote Republican. As Mathias notes, he was the guy who urged the right to go after DEI, critical race theory, and "gender ideology." He's telling us that this is next.

And yet "liberal" journalists will continue to give him extremely respectful coverage. Why? Because he has connections to the Republican establishment, and because they believe that bursting our "liberal bubble" is more important than calling bigots what they are.

Thursday, October 01, 2026

HOW TO SURVIVE THE CULTURE WARS

In a post at Zeteo and a series of posts at Bluesky, Asawin Suebsaeng tells us that the GOP's anti-Hasan Piker strategy isn't working. Suebsaeng tells us at Bluesky:
... one of Trump’s top pollsters is on the record throwing cold water on the GOP-wide 2026 anti- Hasan piker electoral strategy which is still going strong at the NRSC [National Republican Senatorial Committee], etc.

... this is a pollster who trump has leaned on for good news when others predict doom.

Anyway, it’s not just public polling showing the anti Piker strategy ... is a fucking dud.

Per our sources familiar with the data, different GOP orgs have private internal polls that scream at them about a) how basically no one knows who hasan piker is and those who do were largely voting Republican anyway and b) there is scant, if any, evidence that the sustained strategy has moved the needle in Republicans favor....

The intra party face palming over the gop and trump admin Hasan Piker obsession, where they seem to earnestly believe this was a “gift” to them in their campaigns this cycle, is merely one hilarious,, miserably online symptom of how deeply screwed the GOP and President trump likely are on Election Day.
This follows a report that even the centrist Democratic group Third Way now believes that Democrats shouldn't adopt right-wing framing when talking about trans issues:
For Third Way, the terms of engagement have changed, Lanae Erickson, the group’s senior vice president for social policy, education and politics acknowledged in a wide-ranging interview....

“On this issue, the dynamic has really shifted,” she said. Republicans and the right have grown far more extreme, while advocates for trans people have moved to a “more pragmatic place.”

“The MAGA folks took from the 2024 election that this was a great issue for them, that it was one that united their base and made Democrats uncomfortable,” Erickson said. “And that was all true at that moment, but now they’re going way beyond any concerns the public had.”
A number of Democratic candidates have echoed right-wing anti-trans messaging:
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, an Ohio Democrat whose past record was generally supportive of LGBTQ people, referred to “transgender ideology” and keeping “boys out of girl’s sports” in an ad. The state’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Amy Acton, said in a statement that she opposed “boys playing in girls’ sports” and then her campaign set off several negative news cycles with its adversarial stance to queer people who were taken aback by her calling trans girls “boys.”
Acton has a small but growing lead in the polls -- but in Michigan, the Democrats' Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, is also leading, even though he's refused to attack trans people (and responded to a question from Fox's Jesse Watters about the essentially nonexistent practice of castrating trans girls in childhood by asking if Watters was circumcised).

I don't want Democrats to throw trans people under the bus, but the polling success of both Acton and El-Sayed suggests that this issue doesn't really matter to voters this year one way or another, as long as Democrats are keeping the focus on issues voters care about.

That's Lanae Erickson's recommendation:
Addressing trans issues directly while refocusing attention to Republicans’ policy failures – including a war with no clear goal, economic distress and rampant corruption – is the tactic widely promoted among strategists advising the Democrats....

“One person who’s done this extremely well is Jon Ossoff,” Erickson said of the senator from Georgia. “You talk about the corruption, about all the things that are wrong in our government and what is making people’s lives hard.

“And then he adds, ‘and it’s not transgender kids.’ And I think that has helped to really inoculate him against some of these attacks.”
That's what's working for Democrats. It's certainly working for El-Sayed, whose message centers economic concerns and Medicare for All. He hasn't abandoned trans people, but he has put distance between himself and Hasan Piker, regularly chiding interviewers for being excessively interested in "a Twitch streamer from California."

Abdul El-Sayed: "Weijia, with all due respect, this is the third time you've asked about a Twitch streamer ... their whole game is to make us fight culture wars so that we don't pay attention to the fact the president has made $2.2 billion ... "

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 13, 2026 at 10:53 AM

Kamala Harris didn't have a strong, compelling economic message in 2024, so culture-war attacks hurt her -- the "Kamala is for they/them" message probably wasn't what defeated her, but her inability to distinguish herself from President Biden on the economy left her vulnerable. Democrats are talking this year about the issues voters care about. That makes them much less vulnerable to the culture war -- even when they stand up to culture-war attacks. That's how you beat Republican culture warriors.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

WHY WAS ERIC SCHMITT BEING GROOMED FOR STARDOM IN THE FIRST PLACE?

Former special prosecutor Jack Smith was interrogated at a Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing yesterday. If you know what happened, you know this ended as a massive embarrassment for Republicans -- and for one in particular -- but if you don't, here's a brief summary:
Trump and his allies have argued for years that Smith weaponized his powers as a politically motivated cudgel, and on Tuesday, [Missouri senator Eric] Schmitt and his aides were going to prove it. They were well prepared for the showdown. They didn’t just have a smoking gun — they had a chart printed on poster board....

But as it turns out, the Schmitt team’s whole setup was based on a dumb mistake. They apparently thought they’d found proof Smith was in Atlanta the day after a pair of local prosecutors announced an affair, revealing some kind of anti-Trump collusion between them.
This local prosecutors Smith was accused of meeting were Fani Willis, the Fulton Country DA, and a hired prosecutor with whom she was having an affair, Nathan Wade. Willis had acknowledged the affair a day before Smith's alleged trip to Atlanta.
The proof was a series of text messages about a basketball game Smith attended on February 3, 2024, which they believed was an Atlanta Hawks game. But Smith had actually attended an Iowa Hawkeyes game in Maryland that night. The whole sequence — Schmitt’s accusation followed by the humiliating correction — plays out painfully over a little more than seven minutes.
This is worth watching unedited. Senator Schmitt bullies a bewildered Smith, declares that he's caught him in a perjury trap, and calls him a "dirtbag." Then the next questioner, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, correctly IDs the team Smith watched as the college women's team whose star was Caitlin Clark.



And we know Smith attended that Iowa Hawkeyes game because he was seen on camera there.

This is priceless. Check out how local news is reporting on Sen Eric Schmidt’s clown-show grilling of Jack Smith. They found Jack Smith at the game… “Top corner, section 109, row 1. In fact, that seat doesn’t even exist in Atlanta.”

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— Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline.com) September 29, 2026 at 9:25 PM

Senator Schmitt faceplanted in what was supposed to be a career-making moment. We know that was the plan because shortly before the hearing got underway, we were fed this "scoop" by one of Axios's top reporters, Jim VandeHei:
Sen. Eric Schmitt is drawing buzz as a possible Vance VP in 2028

First-term Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) — who was a tough-on-crime state attorney general, and now is vice chair of the Joint Economic Committee — has grown close to Vice President Vance and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate.

We hear the VP views Schmitt, 51, as trustworthy, intelligent, articulate and a deft political operator.
That's unlikely to happen now -- Schmitt didn't just get his facts spectacularly wrong, he got his facts wrong on the subject of sports, something millions of Americans care about and understand in detail. Normal Americans care about sports. Top reporters and pundits in the still male-dominated world of politcal journalism care about sports. This is an embarrassment Schmitt will take to his grave. It won't be forgotten.

But there's something wrong with our political culture when a mainstream news outlet can describe an extremist like Schmitt as a potential rising star who might join a presidential ticket. While Democrats are routinely warned that it's risky for their party to run candidates in statewide and national races who are merely progressive, Axios is touting Schmitt even though he's clearly a white nationalist.

Last year, Schmitt hired a white supremacist staffer who'd lost a job with Ron DeSantis for being too much of a Nazi:
... Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt hired former DeSantis speechwriter Nate Hochman as a policy adviser in February [2025].

... Hochman was unceremoniously fired by Governor DeSantis’ presidential campaign in July 2023 because he’d created and shared a “fancam” of the candidate that heavily featured the Black Sun or Sonnenrad. First designed to adorn the floor of Heinrich Himmler’s castle Wewelsburg, the symbol has been readily adopted by neoNazi groups in recent decades. And Hochman decided it should be in bright red, spinning in front of his boss’ face as the triumphant finale to a propaganda video.
Also:
... the never-Trump conservative outlet the Dispatch revealed details of a Twitter Spaces recording of a 2022 conversation between Hochman and the white supremacist Nick Fuentes.

In that exchange, Hochman complimented Fuentes, saying, “You’ve gotten a lot of kids based” and calling him “probably a better influence than Ben Shapiro on young men”.
Between the time DeSantis fired him and the time Schmitt hired him, Hochman wrote racist and sexist columns for right-wing and publications.
... Hochman cited Jonathan “L0m3z” Keeperman, who says women in the workplace are the cause of societal decline and proudly publishes antisemitic ravings, in order to second Keeperman’s argument that men have to retake the world from women....

... he called Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Jr. Day “part and parcel of the mythology of the New America, which vies to destroy and replace the myths, heroes, and traditions of the old republic,” ... and bemoaned the modern day lack of appreciation for the antebellum South and the good name of Robert E. Lee.
After Schmitt hired Hochman, the senator delivered a "blood and soil" speech at the National Conservatism Conference that may have been written, or at least influenced, by Hochman:
In the speech Schmitt criticized legal immigration, and said that America was not a "universal proposition" open to anyone. He said, "Our people tamed the continent, built a civilization from the wilderness ... We Americans are the sons and daughters of the Christian pilgrims who poured out onto the ocean's shores ... America belongs to us, and only us."
In the speech, Schmitt also
identified America with colonial violence, including “the pioneers striking out from Missouri for the wild and dangerous frontier, the outnumbered Kentucky settlers repelling wave after wave of Indian warband attacks from beyond the stockade walls”, [who] he said would be “astonished to hear that they were only fighting for a proposition” rather than “a homeland for themselves and their descendants”.
And:
As for those who would raise questions about America’s glorious past—including those Americans who joined protests after George Floyd’s murder in 2020—Schmitt said, “America does not belong to them. It belongs to us. It’s our home. It’s a heritage entrusted to us by our ancestors. It is a way of life that is ours, and only ours, and if we disappear, then America, too, will cease to exist.” Who is the “we” in that declaration? The descendants of the European Christians who claimed the West.

The fight at hand, Schmitt contended, “is about whether our children will still have a country to call their own....”
That last sentence sounds a lot like the neo-Nazi Fourteen Words.
We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.
But our political culture has normalized this. It has decided that a slighly milder version of this kind of talk doesn't disqualify J.D. Vance from being vice president or perhaps president. So if it doesn't disqualify Vance, why should it disqualify Schmitt? And why should Schmitt's belief that Donald Trump won the 2020 election -- something he's asserted since he was Missouri's attorney general -- disqualify him when nearly every Republican officeholder in America asserts the same thing without consequence?
In 2020, Schmitt was among 17 Republican attorneys general who joined Texas attorney general Ken Paxton in suing Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to invalidate their electoral votes in the 2020 United States presidential election. The suit claimed the four states' presidential vote tallies were unconstitutional; no evidence supported these claims and the arguments had already been rejected in other state and federal courts.... On December 11, 2020, the Supreme Court rejected the suit in an unsigned opinion.
It appears that no one short of a self-declared Nazi is too far right to be perceived as a potential vice president or president. It appears that being an early adopter of Donald Trump's biggest Big Lie isn't disqualifying. That's how our politics works.

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

TRUMP IS FINALLY USING HIS POWERS FOR GOOD

Donald Trump's powers might have weakened in his second term, but he still has the ability to identify institutional weaknesses that he can exploit. He knows which institutions won't punish him for transgressions, or will let him off with a slap on the wrist.

He also knows that his defiance of these institutions will make news. So, for instance, he recently banished three major news organizations from the White House press pool. A court ruled that he couldn't do that, so he let the news organizations back in -- and then banished one of them, CNN, from Air Force One. He pushed these news outlets around, which made him feel powerful, and then, when he lost a legal challenge, he found a way to defy the court, which also made him feel powerful. And the whole thing was a multi-day news story. He felt powerful because he made that happen.

There's just one problem: the majority of Americans still hate him. All this might have pleased his base, but his base is shrinking rapidly.

And now he's delivering the same one-two punch in the form of taxpayer-funded ads for himself. The ads are illegal, though there's no institution that will hold him accountable for them. The ads are on the air and his defiance of the law is making news.

But the ads are terrible. I posted the "Love Me" ad last week.



That one, at least, has some copy focused on issues. If you think America's biggest problem right now is the specter of communism, and if you believe that Trump has revived manufacturing and given ordinary Americans a massive tax cut, this could be an effective ad -- if it weren't insistently asking us to love Trump.

But then there's ad #2, which might as well be called "I Don't Feel Your Pain."



The voiceover, from a Trump speech, is just patriotic pap. It offers no acknowledgment of the votetrs' discontent:
In all the chronicles of the ages, never before has any nation celebrated so magnificent a triumph as this one. We are the freest people on earth, and by the grace of God, the United States of America is the most successful, most accomplished, most exceptional nation ever to exist in human history. Liberty has prevailed here because of the culture and character of the people who declared it, defended it, and preserved it. We reach a milestone like no other and celebrate with joyful hearts and soaring spirits because after two and a half centuries, we know that this is not an ending. This is only the beginning of the golden age of America. God bless you all.
An ad #3 is just a recycled Trump 2024 campaign ad, featuring Trump making promises that supporters expected him to fulfill by now.



I said above that Trump's skill is to attack weak institutions. He's doing that here. The ads are on the air, paid for with your tax dollars, unlawfully. Voters are seeing the ads and learning about how he's brazenly skirting the law to create and broadcast them.

But that's great! I'm delighted that he's still so good at getting attention that even people who don't watch the TV programming where these ads have appeared and don't have social media algorithms that would put the ads in their feeds will learn about them anyway. I'm glad because it means that millions of people will see these bad, tone-deaf ads and learn that tax money was squandered on them, in defiance of the law.

In other words, the usual Trump double-tap -- do a brazen thing that's attention-grabbing, then get more attention as everyone discusses how Trump did the brazen thing -- is working to the Democrats' midterm advantage. Democrats should be thrilled that these bad ads are out there, and thrilled that stories about their illegality and cost are also out there. Without meaning to, Trump is finally using his attention-grabbing and criminal talents for the good of the country.

Monday, September 28, 2026

WHY AREN'T PUNDITS ENCOURAGING REPUBLICANS TO MOVE TO THE CENTER?

Democrats appear poised to win Senate seats in a number of states Donald Trump won in 2024 -- according to Real Clear Polling, they're leading by 2 points or more in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina. Trump won some of these states by double digits -- but in Maine, a state he lost, Susan Collins in trailing by less than a point. She might win. She might survive a blue wave.

By some measures, Collins is the most moderate Republican in the Senate. She's certainly moderate-coded -- being something other than a right-wing ideologue is her brand, even though her votes against the party line rarely have much impact.

When Democrats have a bad election cycle -- whatever the actual reason -- pundits and Democratic consultants rush to inform us that Democrats fell short because voters perceive them as out-of-touch ideological extremists. Centrists said this repeatedly after Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election, in a year when inflation dragged down not only the Democrats but parties in power worldwide.

The notion that Democrats lose elections because they're radical and alienating was conventional wisdom for quite a while after 2024. Do you remember when Ezra Klein interviewed Ta-Nehisi Coates last September, shortly after the murder of Charlie Kirk, and Klein hijacked what should have been a discussion of Kirk by droning on and on about his particular obsession at the time, which is that Democrats are too ideological and weird to win in the heartland? Klein said:
I look at the last eight, 12 years, and what I see having happened is we, the coalition I am in, the things I believe in, lost ground.

... We’ve written a lot of people off, and in writing them off, we are losing....

... I think of the huge backlash to Bernie Sanders for going on Joe Rogan’s show because Rogan was transphobic. Such a big backlash that when I defended him — I became a Twitter trending topic. And to Elizabeth Warren for going on Bill Maher’s show — Bill Maher is Islamophobic. There were protests at Netflix when they brought on Dave Chappelle.

I think there was a politics of content moderation that took hold that was more about enforcing boundaries of what were and were not ideas we should be engaged with — rather than about engaging them, even if opportunistically.

... Do people feel like, even if they disagree with us on some things, they have a place with us? And my experience going around the country, talking to people — I’ve been on a lot of right-of-center podcasts lately — is that, rightly or wrongly, what they took, and something that really empowered Trump in the last election, was a sense that they didn’t.

They feel like we were against them, and if so, they were going to be against us. And I think that’s, in the end, doing politics badly.
I don't think this is completely off base. I think it's preposterous to imagine that Harris lost in 2024 primarily because of (frequently unsuccessful) efforts to cancel prominent people, but some voters do think Democrats are needlessly censorious.

But they believe this because it's a major topic of conversation in the right-wing media, especially in parts of the country where Fox News is mainstream news, the channel that's on TV in the diner, the bar, the waiting room at the auto repair shop or the hospital emergency room. It's also a major topic of conversation among Democratic pundits. So of course many people believe it's a big problem. They're constantly told that it's a big problem.

In 2026, why isn't anyone arguing that Republicans are telling millions of voters that don't "have a place with" the GOP? Republicans are alienating Muslims with Islamophobia and Hispanics with an out-of-control immigration crackdown. They're alienating non-tradwife women with talk about how it might be better if women didn't vote or work outside the home. They're alienating people who believe in vaccinatrion and cancer research.

I don't think this is the reason a blue wave is building -- I think it's high prices for gas, diesel, and groceries -- but our political culture was happy to reject the conventional wisdom about elections ("It's the economy, stupid") when Democrats lost in 2024. Why aren't they doing the same thing now with respect to Republicans?

In that conversation with Ta-Nehisi Coates, Ezra Klein said this:
I’ve been thinking about Obamacare. When Obamacare passes, there are Democratic senators in Arkansas, in Louisiana, in West Virginia, in Missouri, in Indiana, in North Carolina, in South Dakota, in North Dakota.

And I’ve been thinking that, for a lot of us — to twist a line about capitalism — it has become easier to imagine the end of the country than winning a Senate seat in Missouri or Arkansas. And I think that’s a problem.
In November, Democrats might win Senate seats in Kansas, South Carolina, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. An independent who's been endorsed by Bernie Sanders might win in Nebraska. Portions of the red wall really might sustain damage this year.

Maybe pundits should be putting Republicans on the defensive the way they routinely put Democrats on the defensive, by asking whether the party simply alienates too many voters to be successful nationwide.

Sunday, September 27, 2026

IF THE GOP SUFFERS BLOODBATHS IN 2026 AND 2028, REPUBLICANS WILL STILL LIKE THEMSELVES MORE THAN DEMOCRATS DID AFTER 2024

A poll from the right-leaning Trafalgar Group shows Lindsey Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, clinging to a 1-point lead over her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews, in the South Carolina Senate race. South Carolina is heavily Republican, so I assume Graham Nordone will win the race, but she appears to be struggling. She leads by only 2.6 in the Real Clear Polling average.

When Democrats struggle in an election, they respond with breast-beating and self-abnegation. They conclude that the country is undergoing a culture-wide "vibe shift" toward Republicans and away from themselves. They wallow in self-hate. They tell themselves that in order to survive as a party, they need to be less Democratic.

That's not how Republicans do things. If Graham Nordone ekes out a win -- or even if she loses -- in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024, they'll say it's because their candidate wasn't Republican enough, as "Republican" is currently defined. Here's a post from Will Folks, founding editor of FITS News, an influential right-wing politics site based in South Carolina:
Conservative Republicans in South Carolina made it abundantly clear during the 2026 primary election cycle that they didn’t want the sister of fiscally liberal warmonger Lindsey Graham serving as the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate this fall.

Unfortunately, the Palmetto State’s Republican establishment – egged on by U.S. president Donald Trump – refused to listen, and proceeded to launch a multi-million dollar campaign in support of left-of-center “Republican” Darline Graham Nordone.

At the same time, Trump and his SCGOP allies spent millions attacking Nordone’s Freedom Caucus rival, U.S. congressman Ralph Norman – a move that further alienated the state’s growing conservative base.

Now, the consequences of this ongoing alienation are becoming painfully clear for the Palmetto State’s GOP ruling class... and for Trump.
Folks summarizes the Trafalgar poll numbers and writes:
As we noted earlier this week, many Norman supporters plan to write the congressman’s name on their 2026 ballots – a movement that is likely taking at least 1-2% out of the Republican’s right flank. Meanwhile, Nordone has been completely outflanked by Andrews the affordability front.

“This is a perfect storm,” [a] Republican operative unaffiliated with any of the campaigns told us. “A terrible GOP candidate, a divided Republican party, an unpopular president and economic headwinds that an otherwise unelectable Democrat candidate is deftly capitalizing on.”
See? Apart from doing a better job on affordability, the answer is to double down on Republicanism. A Freedom Caucus Republican, Folks insists, would have done much better in this race. The problem couldn't possibly be that the entire Republican Party has effectively rubber-stamped Trump's failed presidency, and has nothing to offer voters when the country seems to be badly off course.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, a Democratic sweep of the top two races (governor and senator) is possible. Steve Deace, a very influential Iowa Republican broadcaster and operative, posted a cry for help on X this past week:
Yesterday, Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.

... if the environment is this bad in my home state, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, I can’t imagine where it is everywhere else.
But as far as Deace is concerned, the Republican approach to governance is still absolutely correct, with one exception (and he's not even sure that's an exception):
Whatever we’re doing or not doing in Iran/Hormuz has become a 2020 Covid lockdown level of political albatross. This is approaching TARP bailout levels of unpopular in my home state. We are risking what’s left of the Trump presidency on this, because if Democrats take control the legislative branch the Trump domestic agenda we all voted for will largely cease between what a Democrat Congress will do and the courts have already been doing. Not to mention what it will cost individual states like my own, which we have worked so hard to make so red these last 20 years (with Trump’s help).

This whatever/kinda/sorta/but not really war has become an existential misuse of political capital. Many of us never thought it was worth it, and more and more it appears voters agree. We have to save our own country and our own way of life first before we can save anyone else. We have to save America before we can save the world. If a plane is endangered, you are told to put on your mask first otherwise you’re of no use to help save anyone else.
After 2024 -- a year when Democrats lost the popular vote in the presidential by a mere one and a half points -- prominent Democrats and left-centrist pundits began to talk as if the party had gotten everything wrong, and as if Republicans were right about many things (cozying up to angry young men, throwing trans people under the bus). Deace thinks Republicans are still the people who will save America -- and could be doing that right now if it weren't for this pesky war.
I desperately want us to win. I desperately want this presidency to fulfill all the great promise it had coming out of the 2024 election. But whatever this currently is, isn’t it.
And maybe the war isn't a problem -- maybe it just isn't being sold correctly! And maybe Republicans aren't demonizing Democrats enough!
We don’t have to just sit here and take the L. It doesn’t have to end this way. We can still win. There’s plenty of ammunition to hammer the Democrats with.

We need the president out on the stump asap. We need better and way more aggressive messaging. Stop running fake and gay ads about how often so-and-so shows up for votes, and instead mercilessly hammer Democrats on the wickedness they’re voting for. Articulate specifically what the mission/victory is in Iran/Hormuz, because out here in the cheap seats it feels like another Middle East War quagmire regular folks are paying for on both ends all over again.
Even if there's a blue tsunami this year, and another one in 2028, Republicans will still have more self-esteem than Democrats had after losing a fairly close race in 2024. They'll blame Trump's political instincts, and a limited number of his bad decisions. They'll never blame their entire approach to politics the way Democrats do.

I think Democrats will have a very good 2026. Will our political culture say there's been a "vibe shift"? I suspect not. Pundits will say the country is anti-Trump, not culturally Democratic. And prominent Democrats will probably agree.

Republicans still think most of the country is culturally Republican, and they'll believe that even after an electoral bloodbath -- maybe even after a second one in 2028. And that self-confidence is likely to be what they build on if Democrats regain control of D.C. and the pendulum swings, as it usually does.

Saturday, September 26, 2026

TRUMP'S MEDIA BAN IS WORKING PERFECTLY -- FOR HIM

The Atlantic's Quinta Jurecic believes that President Trump's efforts to prevent Politico, CNN, and MS NOW reporters from covering him has been a failure and an embarrassment for him:
Last Friday, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would ban journalists from the three outlets from the White House “as a result of their constant ‘reporting’ FAKE NEWS!” The reporters promptly sued; in the meantime, the television networks responsible for White House pool coverage suspended that work. The counterproductive result was an odd several days during which Trump went without the traditional passel of reporters hanging on his every word.
Jurecic says the press-pool boycott revealed Trump's "impotence." The New Republic's Timothy Noah agrees:
It quickly became apparent that the news networks possessed all the leverage. This was demonstrated most hilariously on Monday when the White House website’s livestream of a Trump gaggle, in which Trump cut the ribbon on a new White House helipad, was inaudible.... Trump ... lost access to a huge distribution network on which he relies to spread his utterances, however inane, across the globe.
As does The New Republic's Greg Sargent. He quotes a Trump Truth Social post:
CNN and MSDNC, to show you how fake they are, today refused to cover one of the Biggest and Most Beautiful Events to take place in many years, the arrival at the White House of the Highly Respected President of China, Xi Jinping, and his beautiful wife, Madam Peng. The event was magnificent — Actually made for Television but, because they’re Fake News, and because they knew how good it would be, they didn’t want credit to be given to “TRUMP,” they refused to be there.
Sargent writes:
Though a judge has now temporarily blocked Trump’s ban, the immediate result of the pool suspension was that the participating networks didn’t film Xi’s arrival. So there was no widely aired coverage of Trump’s grand ceremonial reception of him—hence his fury.

In angrily pretending the news organizations boycotted the event to deny him attention during a successful moment, all Trump really demonstrated is that he badly needs their attention. Thus, their decision to join together in defense of excluded colleagues has located a real weak spot—and nailed it with a direct hit. That’s the true source of his furious outburst.
But if the battle with the three news organizations backfired on Trump, why is he trying to prolong it?

First there was this on Thursday, after Judge Timothy Kelly (a Trump appointee) ordered the ban lifted:
When the press arrived at the White House gates ... the reporters from the three disfavored outlets were still barred from entering.... the TV press pool refused to resume operations until [Friday] morning. The result was that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s state visit to the White House yesterday took place without any American live television coverage. Trump also barred some—though, confusingly, not all—CNN and MS NOW journalists from covering the state dinner, which does not directly violate Kelly’s order but could land the White House back in the courtroom.
And now there's this:
The White House on Friday night blocked CNN from accompanying President Trump on a Saturday trip to Tennessee, a network spokeswoman confirmed....

The decision immediately raised the question of whether the television pool would cover the president’s trip. The TV pool, a rotating group of networks that share the work of filming the president’s daily activities, had boycotted those responsibilities this week after Mr. Trump first banned CNN from participating in the pool.
If, as Sargent says, news organizations are hurting Trump where he's most vulnerable -- his desperate need for attention -- then why is he continuing to put the media's pool coverage at risk?

The answer is obvious: Trump might not be getting his ordinary coverage from the press pool, but his fight with the media is getting massive amounts of media attention. The world's neediest attention seeker is getting the attention he seeks.

The main battle Trump is fighting right now -- the war with Iran -- isn't going very well, so Trump is picking a different battle, with the media, an enemy he knows his (shrinking) base hates. The base loves this, and loves Trump for picking this fight.

However, I don't see how this helps Trump's party as midterm voting begins. The GOP's numbers just get worse and worse, as do Trump's numbers. But he doesn't care. He's just seeking love from the voters who haven't abandoned him.

*****

Trump seems to be doing that a lot these days. The Washington Post notes today that instead of campaigning for an embattled Republican or two this weekend, Trump is focusing on sports:
President Donald Trump has vowed to go all-out campaigning for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, which he has said could decide the fate of the country.

But first: it’s time for golf and college football.

Trump is set to travel to Tennessee on Saturday to watch a high-profile clash between the University of Texas and University of Tennessee’s college football teams....

The president will then head to a golf club outside Chicago for Sunday’s final round of the President’s Cup tournament, where he will serve as honorary chairman.
He's not campaigning.
His trips to Tennessee and Illinois are not expected to swing local races. Neither state is expected to be key to determining the outcome of November’s midterms. Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election prognosticator, does not identify a single House seat in either state as a toss-up or otherwise in play.
And when he's scheduled to resume campaigning, he's traveling to friendly territory, not to battlegrounds:
Next week, the president is set to resume campaigning, but in Oklahoma and Alabama, two deeply red states.
Oh, but this is totally about the midterms.
Republican officials say they hope those appearances will spill over into media markets in neighboring states, Texas and Florida.
So why not just go to Texas and Florida?

Trump is laser-focused on self-soothing. You can see that from his travel schedule. And fighting with the media is part of that, even when he loses in court.

Friday, September 25, 2026

IS THIS AN ANTI-REPUBLICAN WAVE OR AN ANTI-STATUS-QUO WAVE?

Yesterday, Nate Silver wrote this:
A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll out this morning had some disappointing news for Democrats, with Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson by 3 points in Maine.

Other NYT polls had Democrats ahead by 5 points in Michigan and New Hampshire. Still, this poll feels like a “heat check” for Democrats....

Polls have shown Democrats massively overperforming in red states, especially in the Midwest....

By contrast, though, Democrats’ polling has been pretty “mid” in blue states.

Sure, maybe Collins, as one of the few truly moderate members left in Congress, is an exception to the throw-the-bums out mood. The other NYT polls were perfectly fine for Democrats....

In some ways, it’s more surprising to see Chris Pappas only ahead by 5 points in New Hampshire — or Peggy Flanagan in a close-ish race in Minnesota, or Kathy Hochul struggling to achieve a double-digit lead in New York. (Though other polls disagree there.)

So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states.
The Times poll of Maine is, as the paper's Nate Cohn admits, an outlier -- both the University of New Hampshire and the University of Massachusetts have just released polls showing Jackson beating Collins. But the Democratic leads are modest -- 4 points in the UNH poll, 5 points in the UMass poll.

Democrats are beating past performance in red states by double digits. Why not in blue states?

I think two things are happening this year: many voters are eager to punish President Trump, and many voters are eager to vote against the status quo. In red states -- Ohio, Iowa, Texas -- those motives combine to help Democrats. If you're an anti-Trump and anti-GOP partisan, you're especially motivated to vote Democratic this year -- and if you're not a partisan but you think this country is going to hell in a handbasket, you want to blow the system up. The system where you live is Republican, and has been for years. So you want to vote Democratic, too.

But in blue America, "blow up the system" voters see Democrats as the system. I think that's what's keeping some Democrats in Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, and New York from achieving strong showings in the polls.

I'm being somewhat flexible in my definition of "blue America." New Hampshire isn't really blue -- it has a Republican governor and a Republican House and Senate. But the state's entire congressional delegation is Democratic (the Senate seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Maggie Hassan), and it's a very small state surrounded by other strongly Democratic states. Nearly one in six New Hampshire workers work out of state, and most of those commuters work in very blue Massachusetts. New England is regionally blue. So voting Democratic doesn't seem like a way to blow up the system.

In Maine, Susan Collins has always managed to persuade a large portion of the electorate that she's different from the rest of the system. Those voters don't want to blow her up. And in New Hampshire, the Republican Senate candidate is a member of the widely admired Sununu family. So my template doesn't fit every blue or blue-ish state perfectly. But in general, I think it explains why Democrats aren't running away with many Northern-state elections.

A Democratic wave election seems extremely likely this year even though much of America is wary of the Democratic Party. That's because voters are very angry at Trump and very angry at the system. Democrats haven't improved their image much. They haven't established a strong identity that's being embraced by the voters. It's going to work out this year, but in the long term they'll need to be seen as a party that stands for popular, compelling ideas, and they'll need to show results. They're overperforming this year because they're out of power nationally and locally in many places, at a time when millions of people hate the majority of people in power.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

MIGHT AS WELL FACE IT, TRUMP'S ADDICTED TO LOVE

Okay, this is weird:



The tweet comes from Jim DeFede, a CBS reporter in Miami. I agree with Trump that the midterms are a referendum on him, and I agree with DeFede that this looks like a campaign ad -- but if that's what it is, it's the neediest campaign ad ever. "Love me"? Over and over? Seriously? It's fine as a pop song ("Love Me" by JMSN, pronounced "Jameson"; the song was released in 2023). But as a message from a candidate, or pseudo-candidate? Donny, you seem desperate.

This is also weird:

Trump posted this photo on Truth Social this morning. Look close! #TravelWithNatalie

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 24, 2026 at 7:58 AM

Rupar is pointing out the fact that this photo has obvious AI or Photoshop tweaks, most notably the fact that Trump isn't wincing, as he is in the original AP photo (click to enlarge).


But I'm struggling to understand what the point of the post is. "Only Trump"? "Only Trump" what? Only Trump could meet with Xi Jinping while serving as president? Only Trump could order a military flyover as president? Only Trump could have a young blond aide as president?

Natalie Harp is called "the Human Printer" because she prints out stories that are flattering to Trump and presents them to him -- but this isn't a new thing. During his 2016 campaign and his first term, aides supplied him with positivity this way. In May 2017, Politico's Shane Goldmacher reported:
White House and former campaign aides have tried to make sure Trump’s media diet includes regular doses of praise and positive stories to keep his mood up — a tactic honed by staff during the campaign to keep him from tweeting angrily.
The link in this passage goes to an earlier Politico story by Tara Palmeri:
The key to keeping Trump’s Twitter habit under control, according to six former campaign officials, is to ensure that his personal media consumption includes a steady stream of praise. And when no such praise was to be found, staff would turn to friendly outlets to drum some up — and make sure it made its way to Trump’s desk.
But the two items I've posted above aren't just pro-Trump news stories or MAGA opinion pieces. They're delivery systems for pure, uncut Trump worship. They're intended to feed praise and love to Trump in the most addicting form.

I don't know if what we're getting in the Natalie Harp era is driven by Trump's desperation for positive regard as he fails at more and more aspects of his job while aging in a way he can't ignore, or whether Harp is consciously choosing to direct praise and love to Trump in the purest possible form. I suspect that it's the former, and that Harp is just giving Trump what he's jonesing for, in stronger and stronger dosages. But it's not healthy -- though if he's become like a junkie, someone who devotes most of his waking hours to obtaining the drug he needs (which would explain the renovation obsession), this might be keeping him from doing even more damage to America than he's doing now.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DOESN'T SEEM TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AUTHORITARIANISM AND RAGEBAIT

Today, Axios reports on what its headline calls "Trump's last-ditch hunt for voter fraud." "Last-ditch" is the key here:
The Trump administration says Americans should prepare between now and Election Day for a wave of new arrests and prosecutions over alleged non-citizen voter fraud.

... The Trump administration is deploying hundreds of federal investigators and attorneys to pursue President Trump's long-running fixation — and test a broader Republican claim that tougher enforcement will uncover far more illegal voting.

"This initiative is a tier one priority," a Justice Department official told reporters on Tuesday. "It's a top priority for the attorney general and for the White House."
Wait -- you guys are just starting to do this now, when early voting has already begun in a couple of states, and will soon begin in many others?

Well, no -- they've been at this for a while, but they aren't getting very far, according to Axios:
Across the country, there are now 1,600 open cases of potential voter fraud and 160 people have been arrested, a Homeland Security Investigations official said Tuesday.
Even if you assume that all these open cases will lead to arrests and convictions -- which you shouldn't after seeing how the administration tried and failed to use prosecutions to create the impression that vandalism damaged the Reflecting Pool -- remember that we live in a country where more than 155 million people voted in the last presidential election. Sixteen hundred people is .001% of the 2024 electorate, and 160 people is .0001%. That's not enough to decide the outcome of the midterms. And only some of these people were immigrants charged this year.
DOJ has charged 24 immigrants this calendar year following the prioritization, according to agency press releases. The accuse
So, understandably, this isn't a big national news story. But individual cases serve as Fox News ragebait. Yesterday, Fox reported:
An Indian national was federally indicted by a grand jury in Minnesota for knowingly making the false claim to be a U.S. citizen to vote in the 2024 general election....

Mukeshkumar Somabhai Chaudhari, according to a DOJ press release earlier this month, falsely claimed U.S. citizenship by signing a voter signature certificate required under state law to vote in Minnesota and voting Nov. 5, 2024....

"Once again, DOJ is proving that if you look for election fraud, you find election fraud," Chad Ennis, vice president of Honest Elections Project, told Fox News Digital Tuesday. "The left loves to claim election fraud does not happen. But here we have yet another instance of a noncitizen illegally registering to vote."
Fox is trying to sell this story as Minnesota, hotbed of fraud! -- even it notes that Chaudhari was indicted on state charges in Minnesota five months ago, an indictment Fox reported on at the time. And it's trying to sell the story as Team Trump will find massive amounts of fraud, just you wait -- but who's buying this story, apart from (in all likelihood) Donald Trump himself, along with his fellow rage-addicted Fox addicts?

This isn't intimidating legitimate voters, and it isn't getting the kind of wall-to-wall media coverage that might precede a serious electoral crackdown. That might still come, but I'm increasingly of the opinion that Trump simply doesn't have a plan for seriously intervening in the midterms on or before Election Day. His people know they can mollify him by doing something, anything, to suggest that fraud is being rooted out, and they're feeding him (and the right-wing media) that ragebait. There are low-priority stories in mainstream news outlets, but otherwise there's nothing happening that's likely to prevent the election from taking place.

And no, this Democracy Docket report doesn't impress me:
The Department of Justice (DOJ) is close to fully enlisting the 1,000 federal election monitors it announced earlier this year to observe the upcoming midterm elections — the largest such contingent in U.S. history, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon claimed.

The monitors will be department lawyers and other “trained legal staff,” she said in an interview with the far-right media outlet Real America’s Voice Monday.

“I’ve called for, and plan to send, 1,000 to the general election jurisdictions that we’re selecting. And I’m really excited to say that we have — we’re pretty close to that number of people who’ve raised their hands,” Dhillon said.
As I said last month when the Justice Department announced the plan to deploy 1000 monitors, that's a tiny number compared to the number of precincts in America. "More than 95,000 polling places were used in the 2024 general election," the National Conference of State Legislatures has reported. Just in Texas, which is a swing state this year, there are more than 9000 precincts.

On social media, I've been told I should worry more about this:
... I think an overwhelmingly large fraction of all polling places are in solid blue or red regions, and/or serve comparatively few voters.

I don't think 1000 monitors is enough to swing things all by itself, but you add in the local cops, and various self-appointed vigilante groups, all focusing on tossup regions in swing states, and it could be quite significant. Just scaring non-white people away from showing up would work for the GOP.
But where's the evidence that local cops and vigiliantes are being lined up to do this? Where are the calls for citizen intimidation? There'd be signs of this by now. I see nothing besides this smattering of monitors.

As for the monitors themselves, The Washington Post reported this in mid-August:
For Michigan’s primary this month, the Justice Department sent monitors to four Democratic-leaning cities — Detroit, Hamtramck, Lansing and East Lansing. Democrats openly worried that the monitors would interfere with the primary, but state officials said they behaved professionally and did not cause problems.
I'm not saying that Trump is powerless now -- immigrants who are being brutalized in various ways know that, as do many other Trump victims. But Trump couldn't get the SAVE Act through a Republican Congress. He deployed a plan to interfere with mail voting so late that he couldn't get it past a Republican Supreme Court. In July he delivered a prime-time speech charging China with election interference, then his administration seemed to drop that narrative, and today he's greeting President Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews, ahead of a two-day summit with the Chinese leader. There's no effective follow-through on election interference efforts.

This is why I think any attempted steal will come after the voting, not now or in the run-up to Election Day. Trump doesn't seem to have a well-developed plan. If he really wanted to do this, he needed to have a plan many months ago.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

TRUMP IS SUFFERING MIDTERM EGO DEATH

On Saturday I quoted a video essay in which Jamelle Bouie argued that Donald Trump might have a muted response to Republican midterm losses because they're not all about him. Bouie said:
He's not literally on the ballot, and so losing doesn't constitute ego death. He sees it as a political challenge that he would like to avoid. He doesn't want to be impeached again. But as far as the kind of ego death that led him to do January 6th, for example, it doesn't apply here because he's not on the ballot. He's a simple man. And whether or not he is going to suffer ego death really does structure his response to things.
But as we're seeing from Trump's most recent attacks on the media, he's suffering ego death right now -- and it's midterm-related.

What is the press reporting on? Republicans' electoral struggles, and a likely blue wave. National news organizations love horserace coverage, so this is the main topic in the political press. And why are Republicans losing, according to this horserace coverage? Trump.

So even though Trump might tell himself that the GOP losers on Election Day have nothing to do with him, even though he might insist that they're losing because he's not on the ballot drawing infrequent voters to the polls, he knows he's being blamed. And he'll be blamed if Republicans losses are substantial. His ego really is on the line. He doesn't seem capable of rising above this. (I won't even discuss the possibility that he might absorb the losses like a grownup, because that's unimaginable.)

He banished CNN, MS NOW, and Politico reporters from the White House, then CBS, NBC, ABC, and Fox refused to continue producing pool video, which left Trump "literally shouting into the wind on Monday as he cut the ribbon on his new helipad on the South Lawn of the White House, recorded only by a second-tier news broadcaster that could not capture his voice over the roar of Marine One," as Peter Baker of The New York Times reported. According to the familiar saying, there's no such thing as bad publicity, but Trump doesn't believe that -- he wants nothing but positive news reported. He's hearing that the polls for Republicans are bad and he's the reason, so he concludes that the problem isn't anything he's doing, but the fact that bad press exists. There oughta be a law against negative coverage of Trump! is literally his response to all this.

So he's definitely suffering ego death as a result of the midterms. But his response should give us hope, because it's weak and ineffectual. His staffers have now cobbled together something called Trump TV. It's pathetic. It's just a feed of random past presidential events -- old speeches, old Melania appearances -- and while it has more than 3 million subscribers on YouTube, only 1,947 people are watching it as I type this.



(To pick a random comparison, 21,544 people are currently tuned to "lofi hip hop radio 📚 beats to relax/study to," a YouTube music channel.)

All this suggests that Trump's brain has been fully Natalie Harp-ed. She feeds him nothing but happy hopium, and now he craves it 24/7. So if big midterm losses happen, he might lash out up to a point, the way he did at the three news outlets he banned, but what he'll seek most of all is self-soothing -- he'll want to be provided with something that offers him proof that America really, really loves him, no matter what the haters and losers (and voters) say. He might be so desperate for comfort that he won't have his usual energy for fighting.

That might prevent another January 6. It might prevent him from coordinating with GOP officials in the states to deny certification of Democrats' electoral victories. It might prevent him from coordinating with Mike Johnson on a strategy to replace the House clerk with someone who'll agree not to seat Democrats in January.

If I'm right about this, Trump might be fully Harp-brained now, and that's better for America than January 6-brained.